Charles Schwab Head of Crypto Research Jim Feroli on Tuesday said that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) typically faces seasonal weakness during the summer but could benefit from a year-end rally as risk appetite improves.

Fair BTC Valuation At $95,000

Speaking with CoinDesk, Feroli estimated Bitcoin’s fair value at around $95,000, based on the production costs of the least-efficient miners, while efficient miners currently produce Bitcoin at a rough price of $60,000.

He emphasized that Bitcoin’s supply-constrained nature means relatively modest inflows could drive significant price gains, particularly if regulatory clarity improves and institutional adoption accelerates.

Feroli predicts that prices could get there maybe in six months or don’t know when as it does not take a lot of flow to "move the needle on Bitcoin."

While he sees the asset scaled very quickly to $83,000 from $60,000 earlier this year, CLARITY Act plays a key role to “return to this institutional adoption narrative and maybe some sustained momentum there.”

Fed, CLARITY Act Remain Catalysts

Feroli said markets remain focused on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, with investors assessing the risk of additional monetary tightening.

While a rate hike would likely pressure crypto prices in the short term, he expects policymakers to maintain a hawkish tone regardless of the decision.

Beyond monetary policy, Feroli identified the CLARITY Act as crypto’s biggest fundamental catalyst.

Contrary to expectations that legislation may already be reflected in prices, Feroli said Schwab’s research suggests the bill remains largely unpriced.

The firm’s analysis found changes in the probability of the legislation passing explain only about 4% of Bitcoin’s daily price movements.

If Congress approves the bill before the August recess, Feroli believes it could revive the institutional adoption narrative that helped lift Bitcoin roughly 25% following several high-profile ETF launches earlier this year.

“If it were to pass in the next couple weeks, we think that is really serving as a legislative call option,” he said.

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