Editor’s note: This story was updated to add market and economist reactions.

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a policy change and the second under Chair Kevin Warsh.

The vote, however, was not unanimous.

While the Federal Open Market Committee ultimately opted to leave rates unchanged, three policymakers — Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan — dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point rate hike, marking one of the most contested monetary policy decisions in recent Federal Reserve history.

“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy,” the Fed stated.

Markets are pricing in tighter policy ahead.

Fed funds futures imply a roughly 80% probability of a rate hike as soon as September, with a move almost fully priced in by year-end.

Investors will now turn their attention to Warsh’s press conference, scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET.

Experts React

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, said on Bloomberg that he expects a rate hike as soon as September.

“I’m not surprised by the decision. They are going to raise in September.”

Bianco also suggested the Fed may be eager to reinforce its independence after facing repeated criticism from President Donald Trump.

“After Trump attacking this Fed for two years, they want to be independent.”

Not everyone agreed with the decision. Economist Peter Schiff criticized the Fed for failing to tighten policy despite elevated inflation.

“As I’ve been saying, Warsh can talk the talk on fighting inflation, but he can’t walk the walk,” Schiff wrote on X.

“The Fed left rates unchanged and committed to maintaining ample reserves. Warsh is correct: inflation is a choice, and just like his predecessors, Warsh has chosen inflation! Got gold?”

Market Reactions

The two-year Treasury yield, the maturity most sensitive to Fed policy expectations, fell sharply.

The U.S. dollar weakened about 0.2%, while gold climbed roughly 0.7% above $4,070 an ounce.

U.S. equities briefly surged after the statement before giving back most of their gains, leaving the S&P 500 – as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) – little changed, while the Nasdaq 100 edged up by 0.2%

The Dow Jones Industrial Average also erased most of its initial rally.

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