A signal on my Money Calendar just flipped to a setting we haven’t seen since March. It’s not a bullish signal. It’s not a bearish one either. It’s something different, and it changes how I’d approach the next several weeks.
The good news is that this signal isn’t just a warning. It’s also pointing to a few specific opportunities that are easy to miss if you’re only watching the major indexes.
Right now, the biggest risk may not be being too bullish or too bearish. It may be looking in the wrong place entirely.
Let’s look at what just changed, why it matters, and where the strongest opportunities may be setting up next.
The First Clue Is Hiding in My Money Calendar
Most days, my Money Calendar gives a pretty clear picture of where the strongest historical patterns are pointing. It tracks some of the market’s most liquid stocks and ETFs, looking for stretches when they’ve moved in the same direction in at least nine of the last 10 years.
But this month looks different.
Normally, the screen is filled with green and red — green for bullish opportunities, red for bearish ones. Right now, there’s a lot more yellow, and even some orange. The last time it looked like this was back in March.
That doesn’t mean stocks are about to roll over. It means the strongest, highest-confidence patterns are becoming harder to find, and that’s when you need to be more selective about where you put your money.
From there, I look at the duration, the accuracy, and the average return of each setup. Then I use my Power Meter to see whether those patterns have been getting stronger as we move closer to today.
That matters because when the broader market gets harder to read, the setups with the strongest historical track records deserve even more attention. Right now, three of them stand out.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Let’s start with bonds.
Beginning around August 6, (NASDAQ:TLT) enters a historically bearish stretch, and the pattern has been hard to ignore. This ETF has moved lower during this window in nine of the last 10 years, including a drop of more than 17% in 2022. Last year was the exception, but history still points to lower bond prices.
The chart is backing that up. TLT has been making a series of lower highs and lower lows, and if this seasonal pattern plays out again, the ETF could be headed back toward the $80 level — which would also point to interest rates continuing to move higher through late October.
Global X Uranium ETF
Now let’s talk about uranium.
(NYSE:URA)‘s bullish seasonal window begins around August 14, and the numbers behind it are hard to ignore. The ETF has moved higher during this period in nine of the last 10 years, averaging a gain of about 7.7%.
Uranium hasn’t exactly had a great year — URA has come down quite a bit. But that may be exactly why this setup is worth your attention. Seasonality isn’t about where a stock has already been. It’s about where the probabilities suggest it could be headed next.
State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF
The third setup is (NYSE:XME), and this one has two things working in its favor:
- Its bullish seasonal window begins around August 24.
- During this stretch, XME has averaged a gain of nearly 6%.
Then there’s the chart, which is showing something else worth your attention.
XME has now tested the $100 area three separate times, which is starting to look like a triple bottom — a pattern that can signal sellers are running out of steam and buyers are stepping in. When a strong seasonal pattern lines up with a chart that’s beginning to confirm it, that’s the kind of setup worth paying attention to.
What to Watch Now
So yes, what I’m seeing on my screen has me concerned, but not because I think the market is falling apart.
It’s because those broad, high-confidence patterns that usually jump off the screen are becoming harder to find. Does that mean you stop looking for opportunities? Of course not. It just means you need to be more selective about which setups deserve your attention.
Right now, I’d have TLT, URA, and XME at the top of my watch list.
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