Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR) reports second-quarter earnings after the bell today, with the call at 5 p.m. ET.
Polymarket gives the company a 93% chance of beating earnings, but the more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which words CEO Alex Karp and his team will say.
Analysts expect earnings of about 35 cents per share, up from 16 cents in the year-ago period, on revenue of roughly $1.81 billion. Palantir has beaten or matched consensus estimates for eight quarters running.
The stock is down 26% this year.
What Kalshi Predicts Palantir Will Say
“International” leads the board at 95%. U.S. revenue grew 104% last quarter, international roughly 37%, dragging total growth to 85%.
"Maven" trades at 90%. The Pentagon has expanded Palantir’s flagship battlefield AI program to nearly $1.3 billion through 2029, while NATO runs its own version.
"Warp Speed" sits at 75%. The manufacturing operating system is Palantir’s reindustrialization pitch.
In December, the Navy announced an investment of up to $448 million in a Palantir-powered "Ship OS" intended to modernize shipbuilding and repair.
“Slop / AI Slop” trades at 73%. Karp spent the first-quarter call applying the phrase to rivals whose software he says falls apart in production, and told staff in July that AI tokens produce a “weird kind of slop.”
“Sovereign AI” is at 57%.
The term is Karp’s pitch that governments should run AI on their own systems and keep their data rather than hand it to OpenAI or Anthropic.
He spent July pushing the idea, and the offering Palantir launched with NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) in March is called the Sovereign AI Operating System.
What Kalshi Predicts Palantir Will Skip
"Commercial Growth" is only a coin flip at 47%, even though U.S. commercial revenue, expected to rise roughly 134%, may be the number that determines the stock’s reaction.
“Lethal,” Karp’s go-to adjective for what Palantir builds, is only a coin flip at 47%.
“Nvidia” itself sits at just 43%. Traders think Karp is more likely to repeat the thesis than to name the partner.
“Anthropic / Claude” trades at 24%. Karp said last week that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei isn’t the “caricature” most Americans imagine, even while calling AI rivals “wildly unlikable.”
"ICE" trades at 17%. The customer relationship that generates some of Palantir’s loudest headlines is strongly favored to go unmentioned.
“Gotham Platform” sits at 10%, reflecting how thoroughly investor attention has shifted from Palantir’s original intelligence platform toward AIP and the commercial business.
Reading the Board
The beat is priced in; the reaction is not. Options traders are pricing in a move of about 12% in either direction, according to TradingKey.
Investors will be watching U.S. commercial growth and whether Palantir raises its full-year forecast above the current 71% target.
Karp’s words are mostly priced. Whether the numbers clear the market’s expectations is the 12% question.
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