After a down month of June for the S&P 500, which is tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), the market index couldn’t fare any better in July. After two down months this summer, the market could see negative returns the rest of the year based on historical data.
June and July Both Down Not Good News
Data from Carson Investment Research Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick might not be what investors want to see to start the month of August.
The data shows that in the months that had negative returns for both June and July dating back to 1963, only four of the 12 years ended up having a positive return the rest of the year. The other eight months had a negative return the rest of the year.
| Year | June S&P 500 Return | July S&P 500 Return | S&P 500 Return Rest of Year |
| 1963 | -2.0% | -0.3% | +8.5% |
| 1966 | -1.6% | -1.3% | -3.9% |
| 1969 | -5.6% | -6.0% | +0.3% |
| 1974 | -1.5% | -7.8% | -13.6% |
| 1981 | -1.0% | -0.2% | -6.4% |
| 1982 | -2.0% | -2.3% | +31.3% |
| 1990 | -0.9% | -0.5% | -7.3% |
| 2001 | -2.5% | -1.1% | -5.2% |
| 2002 | -7.2% | -7.9% | -3.5% |
| 2007 | -1.8% | -3.2% | +0.9% |
| 2008 | -8.6% | -1.0% | -28.7% |
| 2011 | -1.8% | -2.1% | -2.7% |
| 2026 | -1.1% | -0.1% | To Be Determined |
The average return of the 12 times this happened was -2.5%, with a median return of -3.7 for the 12 cases.
"July tried, but finished down 0.1%. Prepare to hear a LOT about this from the bears, but down in June and July has been weak the rest of the year historically," Detrick tweeted.
August and September the Worst Two Months
Making matters worse for investors is the fact that data also shows that August and September are bad for the markets.
"August and September are historically the worst two months of the year. Did we get the usual midterm year volatility early this time though with the July momo crash?" Detrick tweeted.
Data shared by Detrick on social media shows that August and September are the worst two months each year based on historical time periods of "since 1950," "past 20 years," "past 10 years," and 2026 being a midterm election year.
The old market adage is "sell in May and go away," which tells investors to sell their holdings in May and then wait to re-enter after the slow, down months of Summer, with a typical re-entry in October.
Based on the down June and July and the market data from Detrick, the investors who followed this motto may end up being the biggest winners in 2026.
Image via Shutterstock
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