Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) still trades around $63,000, despite a $100 million hack, Michael Saylor selling, and over 20,000 BTC hitting exchanges.

Analyst SalsaTekila says this is a sign Bitcoin has hit the depression phase of the cycle.

Why The Resilience Matters More Than The Headlines?

The pseudonymous analyst took to X to point out that Bitcoin completed its capitulation in late June and this week only strengthened that case. 

The Coldcard hardware wallet hack was the scariest security event since the COVID crash, since the ability to securely self-custody Bitcoin has always been a core reason to buy and hold. Bitcoin barely ticked lower.

“The Trumps sell more BTC, Saylor sells more BTC, Coldcard gets hacked for over $100M, and we can’t even tick down a little,” SalsaTekila wrote. 

He said Bitcoin already absorbed record ETF outflows, the worst month and quarter since launch, major quantum fears, renewed US-Iran tensions, and constant forced selling fears from underwater treasury companies, all without making fresh lows.

His read is that the market sits in the depression phase of the cycle, where sentiment stays extremely bearish even as selling pressure fades. 

The next phase is disbelief, where prices begin recovering but investors dismiss the move as a temporary sucker’s rally.

What The On-Chain Data Is Saying?

Pseudonymous analyst Victor said on X that Bitcoin’s Adaptive Sell-Side Risk Ratio is sitting near the bottom percentile, a zone that historically appeared during the final stages of bear markets.

The same setup appeared near $3,000 in 2018, $5,000 to $10,000 in 2020, and $16,000 to $25,000 in 2022 to 2023.

“Low sell-side risk doesn’t guarantee the bottom,” Victor wrote. “But it does say the market has far less emotional fuel left to burn,” he added.

What Is Still Adding Sell Pressure?

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez flagged two warning signs on X. Bitcoin miners sold roughly 1,774 BTC worth around $112 million over the past week, signaling another wave of profit-taking. 

Meanwhile, over 20,000 BTC hit exchanges, a move Ali Charts said often signals rising sell-side pressure worth monitoring closely.

The combination of miner selling and exchange inflows arriving at the same time as the broader resilience narrative creates a mixed picture heading into the week.

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