Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the U.S. and Iran may agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days, and Polymarket traders give an August agreement a better-than-even chance.
What they don’t believe is that ships will start moving normally anytime soon.
“There is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait,” Bessent told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” this morning.
He said the agreement would guarantee commercial ships freedom of movement, ruling out an Iranian toll.
Oil sold off hard on the remarks. WTI crude fell 4.5% to $76 while Brent dropped 3.7% to $80.
Qatar’s foreign ministry said Qatar, Pakistan and Oman were coordinating the exchange of draft proposals between the U.S. and Iran, according to Reuters
Iran denies negotiating directly with Washington and says its talks are with Oman over managing the strait.
The core dispute, per Reuters, is control: Tehran wants authority over vessels entering the Gulf and the ability to intervene in outbound traffic, which cuts directly against Bessent’s no-restrictions framing.
A Deal Is Not a Reopening
Polymarket prices an August Hormuz agreement at roughly 60%, making some form of handshake more likely than not.
But the contract on traffic actually returning to normal by Aug. 31 trades at just 18%, with September at 31% and a 39% chance shipping does not normalize at all this year.
According to Kpler data cited by Reuters, six vessels with active transponders crossed the strait Monday, down from seven Sunday, compared with more than 100 daily crossings in normal conditions. Reuters separately reported that a dry-bulk carrier was struck near the strait, forcing its crew to abandon ship, with one seafarer missing.
Polymarket gives a 70% chance Iran will charge Hormuz transit fees by year-end. Traders are betting Bessent’s no-toll position will not survive through December, even if he secures a near-term deal.
The Exxon and Chevron Angle
A real reopening would compress the war premium in crude, and President Donald Trump has already put producers on notice, saying Monday that Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) earned excessive profits during the conflict.
Dow futures pointed to a roughly 600-point opening gain following Bessent’s comments. Wall Street is pricing the promise. Polymarket is still waiting for the ships.
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