Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER) reports second-quarter earnings before the open Wednesday, its first since the Financial Times reported that Waymo plans to end their exclusive arrangement in Austin and Atlanta.
Polymarket gives the company an 88% chance of beating earnings, but the more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which words CEO Dara Khosrowshahi and his team will say.
Analysts expect adjusted earnings of about 83 cents per share, up from 63 cents a year ago, on revenue of $14.2 billion. The stock is down 14% this year.
What Kalshi Predicts Uber Will Say
“Delivery Hero” is at 85%. Uber agreed in July to buy the German group for $14.8 billion in cash, which would extend the platform to 99 markets and nearly double those running both rides and delivery. “Expansion,” at 82%, is the same trade.
“Waymo” trades at 81%. The Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) unit reportedly notified Uber that it plans to enter Austin and Atlanta independently in January 2028, sending shares to their lowest in more than a year.
“Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation” sits at 74%. Uber has lobbied to write its hybrid-network model into law, reportedly circulating language in New Jersey that would require platforms offering robotaxi rides to have human drivers complete 85% of trips for three years, a proposal that could effectively block Waymo and other developers from operating standalone apps.
“Safety” is at 66%. Uber has reportedly cited robotaxis passing stopped school buses in Austin and entering flooded roads as tensions with Waymo escalated.
“Lucid” sits at just 59%. The Lucid Group Inc. (NASDAQ:LCID) robotaxi built with Nuro is due to launch in the San Francisco Bay Area this year, the first step in an exclusive program targeting at least 35,000 vehicles on Uber’s platform.
“Nvidia” is a coin flip at 53%, even though NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) hardware underpins Uber’s planned 100,000-vehicle autonomous fleet starting in 2027.
What Kalshi Predicts Uber Will Skip
“Zoox” sits at 30%. Amazon.com Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AMZN) robotaxi arm competes with Uber and has no deal to join it.
“Waabi” trades at 28% despite raising $750 million in January with plans to put 25,000 robotaxis on Uber’s network.
“Lyft” and “Avride” are both at 24%. Lyft Inc. (NASDAQ:LYFT) will add Waymo rides in Nashville later this year, while Avride is bringing robotaxis to Uber in Dallas.
DoorDash Inc. (NYSE:DASH) trades at 20%, cheap for the rival the Delivery Hero deal is built to fight.
Reading the Board
Options traders are pricing a 7% move in either direction.
The scorecard for Wednesday is straightforward: keep bookings growing near 20%, keep margins expanding and show that Delivery Hero and robotaxi spending won’t swamp cash generation.
Uber cleared that bar last quarter, jumped 8.5% on the print, then gave it all back. The market is trading the future, not the quarter, and it has decided the future is autonomous.
That is Khosrowshahi’s real test: selling Uber as the natural marketplace for autonomous vehicles, even if the industry’s flagship operator prepares to compete against it directly.
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