The artificial intelligence boom has created a strange problem for the memory industry. While companies build more capacity — Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (OTC:SSNLF), SK Hynix Inc. (NASDAQ:SKHY) and Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) are all expanding production — the supply relief investors are waiting for may still be almost two years away.
2028 is the earliest point when the industry’s competing expansion plans could simultaneously translate into meaningful production, according to Counterpoint Research Director MS Hwang.
"The point at which all of these expansion plans will simultaneously contribute to actual production output is expected to be 2028 at the earliest," Hwang told Benzinga in an exclusive interview.
The timeline matters because demand is already outrunning supply. AI is no longer consuming only high-bandwidth memory attached to GPUs. The next wave of infrastructure spending is also pulling conventional DRAM into the shortage.
AI Is Turning Conventional DRAM Into A Bottleneck
Successive waves of AI adoption are driving demand for both conventional DRAM used alongside CPUs and HBM used by AI accelerators. Counterpoint expects pent-up demand from agentic AI and AI server CPU growth to push conventional DRAM prices even higher.
Prices already surged sequentially during the second quarter:
- Samsung emerged as the biggest beneficiary. The South Korean giant reclaimed the global DRAM crown with 39% revenue share, returning to levels last seen in 2024.
- SK hynix dropped from 39% a year earlier to 26%.
- Micron reached 25%, putting it within one percentage point of second place.
Counterpoint Vice President of Research Neil Shah said Micron’s DRAM revenue has increased fivefold since the second quarter of 2025.
The shift shows why the current cycle is unusual. The winners aren’t simply the companies with the best technology.
Capacity itself is becoming an asset.
China Adds Another Layer to the Supply Equation
CXMT’s DRAM revenue surged 716% year over year in the second quarter, making it the world’s fastest-growing DRAM supplier, according to Counterpoint.
Chinese capacity alone is unlikely to break the current pricing cycle anytime soon, Hwang said.
Global memory producers are expanding alongside China. The key question is when all that capacity hits the market together.
For now, that answer remains 2028 at the earliest. That leaves AI demand as the bigger near-term variable.
"The ultimate risk would be a downturn in AI capital expenditure," Hwang added.
If AI spending remains strong, aggressive capacity additions eventually become the force capable of reversing memory prices.
Until then, the industry faces an unusual setup: rising prices are encouraging more factories, but the factories may arrive too late to solve today’s shortage.
For Micron, Samsung and SK hynix, that delay could keep the memory cycle stronger for longer.
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