Senate Majority Leader John Thune says he still expects an initial CLARITY Act vote this week.
Prediction market traders think it may be too little, too late.
The Polymarket contract tracking whether the crypto bill becomes law in 2026 crashed to a record-low 14% on Wednesday, down from an 82% peak in February. Nearly $4.7 million has been traded on the issue.
Even Thune hedged his own promise. “Whether we can get on it or not, we’ll see,” he said.
Trump’s Crypto Fortune Is the Stumbling Block
Senate Democrats will reportedly deny cloture, leaving the bill short of the 60 votes needed to advance, according to Punchbowl News.
The dispute centers on President Donald Trump’s $1.4 billion windfall from meme coins and crypto deals, and on ethics language Democrats say would leave those interests largely untouched.
The Republican proposal reportedly bars certain officials from issuing or sponsoring new digital assets but leaves the Trump family’s existing holdings untouched.
Enforcement would rest solely with Trump’s Justice Department, and the restrictions would expire the moment he leaves office.
Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) told the Wall Street Journal she will oppose the bill in its current form.
“The president’s corruption is shocking,” she said. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) called the offer “not a serious effort.”
The loss of their support carries unusual weight.
Alsobrooks and Gallego were the only two Democrats who voted to advance the bill out of the Senate Banking Committee in May. They were supposed to be the bridge to 60 votes.
Democrats want the sunset clause scrapped, enforcement extended to the states, and Trump’s assets divested or placed in a blind trust.
Ethics is the immediate obstacle, though disputes over stablecoin rewards, illicit finance and consumer protections also remain unresolved.
A White House spokeswoman has said Trump and his administration act in the best interest of the American people, according to the Journal.
Why Wednesday Matters for Coinbase Traders
Thune did not file cloture Tuesday. Under normal Senate procedure, Wednesday is the last day a filing can ripen into a Friday vote before the recess.
A separate Polymarket contract gives a 29% chance the Senate holds any recorded CLARITY vote before leaving town.
Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) rose 9.6% on July 21 after reports of a White House-Republican agreement on ethics language.
Shares have since more than erased that gain, touching a 52-week low after a second-quarter earnings miss and increasing the importance of any regulatory breakthrough.
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