President Donald Trump said Tuesday night that Strait of Hormuz negotiations are “moving along very nicely” and promised an answer within 48 hours. Traders on Polymarket are pricing a wide gap between hearing an announcement and seeing ships move.
What Happened
Speaking to reporters before departing California for Las Vegas, Trump was asked about a report that a Hormuz agreement could be announced as soon as Wednesday.
“It could happen. Tomorrow or the next day,” he said, adding: “We’re moving along very nicely. You’ll find out. We’ll know in 48 hours.”
Trump was more forceful in a subsequent Fox News interview, saying the strait “is going to be open very soon” and warning: “If they back out again, they are going to get hit really hard.”
Iran and Oman are reportedly closing in on the mechanics of a reopening. Under the proposal described by two regional officials to the Associated Press, inbound ships would use an Iranian-coordinated channel, with outbound traffic running through an Omani route and service fees potentially charged for security and environmental services.
That last detail may collide with Trump’s own position. “I’m not going to let them charge,” he said Monday. “Anybody’s going to charge, we’ll charge.”
Polymarket traders think there’s a 48% chance Iran charges fees by the end of the year.
AP reported Wednesday that negotiators had finalized a draft awaiting approval from Iran’s supreme leader, although Reuters sources cautioned that important details remained unresolved.
Traders Price the Gap
Polymarket is treating the announcement and the reopening as two different bets.
A new market on a U.S.-Iran Hormuz agreement prices roughly 67% odds of a deal by Aug. 15, with volume of around $64,000.
A separate market asks when strait traffic actually returns to normal. Traders there have put down $10.3 million, and they give just 2% odds by Aug. 15 and 17% by the end of August.
That market resolves on IMF PortWatch data and requires a seven-day average of 60 daily transits. Recent readings have run between five and 15 ships, compared with an IMF PortWatch average of roughly 94 per day in 2025.
Oil Whipsaws on Deal Hopes
Oil initially extended its decline on deal hopes before reversing higher Wednesday after Houthi rebels claimed an attack on a Saudi tanker. The United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) may remain volatile through Trump’s 48-hour window.
The president reportedly told Fox News that gas prices could drop to $2.50 per gallon if the strait opens without friction.
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