XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) realized volatility hit a three-month low on Wednesday as three major exchanges saw intensified withdrawal activity.
What The Volatility Drop Is Telling Traders?
CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain noted on the platform that XRP’s 30-day realized volatility on Binance has fallen to roughly 0.34, its lowest reading in three months, while price holds near $1.07.
The decline reflects a significant drop in daily price swings as the market enters a period of calm following the elevated volatility seen in June.
History shows these quiet periods rarely last, with volatility typically expanding on major news, stronger volume, or a shift in sentiment.
Why One Analyst Is Eyeing $43
An Elliott Wave analysis shared on X suggests XRP is completing a major pullback in the $1.00 to $1.06 zone, with momentum showing an early bullish signal.
Price is making a lower low while RSI holds a higher low, a divergence that often points to fading selling pressure before a reversal.
If the pattern plays out, the analyst projects a next leg higher similar in scale to XRP’s prior 1,200% rally, with price targets stretching from $6.42 all the way to $43.83 across a 2028 to 2029 timeline.
Three things need to happen first. The divergence needs to confirm with a break of the current downtrend.
Then price needs to reclaim $3.60, the prior cycle high, to validate that the next major move is actually underway. Elliott Wave counts are subjective and these targets are Fibonacci extrapolations, not guarantees.
What XRP Derivatives Are Showing
XRP derivatives volume jumped 21.79% to $1.56 billion while open interest climbed 2.12% to $2.31 billion according to Coinglass, meaning fresh positions are entering the market alongside rising activity.
The crowd is overwhelmingly long, with Binance at 2.70 and OKX at 3.25 on the long/short ratio.
However, the liquidation data cuts against that confidence. Long liquidations hit $1.85 million in 24 hours against just $71,000 in shorts.
Options volume also spiked 57.82%, a sign traders are quietly buying downside protection even while publicly positioned for a move higher.
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