Elon Musk’s SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) beat revenue estimates in its first earnings report as a public company, but one veteran analyst says the rocket maker is quietly turning into something else: a landlord for other people’s AI compute.
Shares tumbled as much as 11% in postmarket trading Tuesday after the company disclosed roughly $18.4 billion in second-quarter capital spending, overshadowing revenue of $7.8 billion that topped the $6.81 billion analysts expected.
‘As Much of a Neocloud Company as an AI Company’
Bob O’Donnell, president and chief analyst at TECHnalysis Research, told Bloomberg that much of SpaceX’s AI infrastructure is leased to outside customers rather than reserved for its own models.
“They’re becoming as much of a neocloud company as they are an AI company,” O’Donnell said, noting that revenue from selling Grok models “hasn’t been as big” as what OpenAI and Anthropic generate.
O’Donnell said the longer-term question is whether chip leasing is “really the kind of business you want to be in,” and when SpaceX may need to bring some of that capacity back to run its own models.
Polymarket traders give xAI only a 4% chance of having the best AI model by the end of the year. Anthropic is first with 69%.
The Bull Case for Renting Chips
The strategy has a clear logic. Leasing turns excess capacity into revenue while the Grok business develops, rather than leaving expensive silicon underused.
It also works as a hedge. Even if OpenAI or Anthropic stay ahead in the model race, SpaceX can still get paid for supplying the compute they need.
The arrangement may also provide some flexibility, SpaceX can rent out capacity during periods of excess supply, then potentially reclaim it as Grok’s own training needs grow.
Why the Hedge May Cut Both Ways
The trouble with renting out chips is that it turns SpaceX into a capital-intensive infrastructure business, and markets rarely pay software multiples for what is essentially real estate with cooling fans.
It also puts the company in a strange position with its own customers. Anthropic and other AI developers keep the models and customer relationships, while SpaceX shoulders the upfront cost of the chips, power and buildings, then watches the hardware depreciate.
Nor is today’s compute shortage guaranteed to last. Once more data centers come online and models become cheaper to run, rental prices could sag, leaving SpaceX holding a lot of aging silicon.
What Traders Are Pricing In
Traders leaned the wrong way on the numbers.
Heading into the print, Polymarket traders assigned roughly a 65% probability that SpaceX would miss earnings expectations, only for the company to beat on both revenue and the bottom line.
The stock fell anyway.
The $18.4 billion capex figure mattered more than the beat, which suggests the market is done asking whether SpaceX can hit estimates and has moved on to what kind of AI business investors are actually paying for.
For a full recap of SpaceX’s second-quarter earnings report, read Benzinga’s SpaceX Q2 highlights.
Image: Shutterstock
Login to comment