Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) whales are accumulating aggressively even as prediction markets project a higher chance of a drop to $50,000 than a run to $100,000 in 2026.

When Is The “Next Major Leg Higher“?

In an X post on Aug. 5, Trader exitpump pushed back against Kalshi prediction market odds that assign a roughly 55% probability of Bitcoin falling to $50,000 before reaching $100,000.

The trader argued the market is undergoing its first meaningful retest of the FTX collapse anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP), calling it one of Bitcoin’s most important long-term support levels.

"The FTX collapse wasn’t just another swing low," the trader said, noting it marked forced liquidations, panic selling and the beginning of a new market cycle.

He added that years of ETF inflows, institutional participation and trading activity have turned the AVWAP into the average cost basis for a large share of Bitcoin accumulated since late 2022.

“If Bitcoin continues attracting sustained spot demand here and fails to gain acceptance below this level, I think we’re watching the market build the base for the next major leg higher,” the trader added.

Whale Accumulation — Bullish Or Cautious?

CryptoQuant reported on Thursday that more than 38,000 BTC recently flowed into accumulation addresses. This is one of the largest inflows recorded for wallets typically associated with long-term holders and OTC settlement activity.

The realized price, or average acquisition cost, of these accumulation wallets currently sits near $70,000, compared with Bitcoin trading around $64,000.

CryptoQuant outlined two possible scenarios:

  • Bullish case: Whales are accumulating in anticipation of the next leg higher.
  • Cautious case: Some buyers may simply be averaging down with plans to distribute holdings if Bitcoin revisits their roughly $70,000 cost basis. The firm said the key signal will come if Bitcoin approaches that level.

“Whether these wallets continue accumulating or begin distributing around that level will provide a much clearer signal about the next major trend,” CryptoQuant said.

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