Shares of Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL) fell 3% Thursday after two analysts trimmed price targets following mixed second-quarter results.

Here are the key analyst takeaways:

  • H.C. Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese reiterated a Buy rating, cutting the price target to $104 from $115.
  • Needham analyst John Todaro reiterated a Buy rating, cutting the price target to $127 from $150.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

H.C. Wainwright: Colonnese said the market underestimates how hard Circle’s competitive position is to replicate, with the network spanning 35 blockchains and 185 countries backed by 55-plus licenses and 150-plus distribution partners. 

The Coinbase distribution deal renewed with no change to terms, which he called evidence the relationship remains durable.

Revenue came in at $701.3 million against the firm’s $713.1 million consensus estimate, with the miss driven by USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) circulation falling 5% quarter-over-quarter to $73.3 billion.

Management raised 2026 Other Revenue guidance to $310 to $330 million, though Colonnese noted $180 million reflects Arc token pre-sale revenue recognition rather than underlying business acceleration.

He described the Arc mainnet launch on September 16 as one of the most important near-term catalysts, with founding validators including BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), DTCC, Visa (NYSE:V), and Mastercard (NYSE:MA).

The $104 target is based on a 32.0x EV/EBITDA multiple on 2027 estimates.

Needham: Todaro said the quarter missed on revenue but beat on earnings, with diluted EPS of $0.18 topping his $0.16 estimate. 

He devoted significant attention to Arc, calling it potentially bigger than USDC itself as a new operating-system layer for on-chain finance. The Arc token pre-sale raised $242 million, with $180 million recognized as near-100% margin revenue in the second half of 2026.

He also highlighted the Circle Payments Network accelerating to roughly $23 billion in annualized payment volume as of July 31, now spanning 175 financial institutions across 58 countries. The $127 target is based on 28.5x discounted 2028 EV/EBITDA.

Both firms cite the September 16 Arc launch as the single most important near-term event and treat the GENIUS Act’s January 2027 effective date as the more important regulatory anchor over the still-pending Clarity Act.

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