Former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson has been one of the most vocal bears on SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) stock since the Elon Musk–led company went public in June. After SpaceX’s first quarterly report this week as a public company, he weighed in again.
Whitney Tilson on SpaceX Stock
SpaceX’s second-quarter revenue was up 92% to $7.8 billion, beating Wall Street estimates. That’s the good news for investors and a positive for Tilson.
Tilson calls SpaceX "the most overvalued large-cap stock of all time" in his Stanberry Research newsletter.
SpaceX stock tumbled 14% Wednesday as investor dissected the earnings and higher than expected capital spending.
"Even the greatest stock promoter of all time, CEO Elon Musk, couldn’t keep the shares from tumbling," Tilson said.
Tilson said SpaceX only reported "selected cash flow information" for the first six months of 2026 and not for the same period last year, which he said is "totally unacceptable for one of the most valuable companies on the planet."
Capex that is significantly higher than operating cash flow saw free cash flow come in at negative $25 billion for the first six months of the year, something Tilson said should scare investors.
Tilson said SpaceX has two great businesses with Starlink and space, but a terrible one with xAI.
"xAI is dragging down these two great businesses. It’s burning huge amounts of cash in an attempt to keep up with much larger competitors."
Tilson’s bearish comments came ahead of a share unlock of 911.5 million shares set to be tradeable on Thursday. The former hedge fund manager said this will see the float, or number of share eligible to trade, nearly triple.
"I have to imagine that many holders will be eager to sell to diversify – especially in light of the stock’s absurd valuation."
What’s SpaceX Worth?
While stock analysts have price targets for SpaceX that are higher than the current price and IPO price, Tilson sees more downside ahead.
SpaceX reported quarterly revenue of $7.8 billion, which would be $31.4 billion on an annualized basis. Musk says SpaceX will hit $100 billion in annual revenue run rate by the end of 2026.
Tilson doesn’t see Musk’s prediction coming true and meets in the middle.
With an "extremely generous" annual run rate of $50 billion by the end of the year, SpaceX would be worth $500 billion based on 10 times revenue, which Tilson said is "equally generous."
"So that would mean the stock would be overvalued by at least 3 times – by roughly $1 trillion."
SpaceX has a current market capitalization of nearly $1.5 trillion.
SpaceX Stock Price Action
SpaceX stock is up 1% to $109.36 on Thursday versus post-IPO trading range of $104.83 to $225.64. The shares are down 32% from their public debut.
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