DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ:DKNG) reports second-quarter earnings after the bell today, with the call scheduled for Friday morning.
Polymarket gives DraftKings just a 52% chance of beating expectations.
What words will be spoken on the call trade on Kalshi, where the most striking price on the board is Kalshi itself: traders give the rival just a 12% chance of being named on the call.
Analysts expect earnings of about 2 cents per share, down from 38 cents in the year-ago period, on revenue of roughly $1.52 billion.
The stock is down 39% this year, pressured in part by the same prediction markets now handicapping its call.
Beyond the headline beat, investors will be watching whether customer-friendly World Cup results pressured sportsbook margins and whether DraftKings maintains its full-year outlook.
They will also want clearer numbers on the cost of building Predictions and whether its new users are sticking around.
What Kalshi Predicts DraftKings Will Say
“World Cup” leads at 96%. The tournament became a major test of prediction markets’ ability to take share from conventional sportsbooks, and CEO Jason Robins made it the deadline for DraftKings’ expanded predictions rollout.
“Alberta” trades at 86%. DraftKings launched in the province on July 13, its second Canadian market and 34th North American jurisdiction.
“Competitor / Competition” sits at 68%. Traders expect management to address the prediction markets threat, just not by name.
“Combo” trades at 66% and “Super App” at 65%. Robins told investors in May that “Our super app, market-making capabilities, proprietary exchange, and combos are coming together ahead of the World Cup.” In June the company folded its DKeX exchange into the flagship app.
“Moonshot” trades at 63%. The MLB product, launched in June, lets bettors ride a growing payout multiplier during a game and cash out before an out ends the wager.
What Kalshi Predicts DraftKings Will Skip
“ESPN” is a coin flip at 51%, a surprise given DraftKings became the network’s exclusive sportsbook in December after PENN Entertainment (NASDAQ:PENN) exited.
“Railbird” trades at 32%. The acquisition that brought DraftKings its CFTC-regulated exchange may go unmentioned now that the exchange it enabled is live.
Then there is “Kalshi” at 12%. Naming the rival means discussing the regulatory model DraftKings’ own Predictions business borrows from, in front of the state regulators who have warned licensed operators about it. Traders expect Robins to discuss the category, not the company.
Reading the Board
Options traders are pricing a move of about 10% in either direction, according to TipRanks.
The tension behind that number is concrete. DraftKings recently delivered the profitability it spent years promising, and it plans to spend $200 million to $300 million on Predictions this year to defend against the platforms threatening its core business.
The word markets say Robins will talk about the threat without naming it. Wall Street’s question is blunter: whether he can fund the defense without breaking the profit promise.
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Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
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