Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may be entering the final stretch of its bear market, but history suggests it could face a few more months of weakness before establishing its cycle bottom.

Four-Year Cycle Holds Firm

In a podcast on Aug. 6, crypto expert Benjamin Cowen argued Bitcoin continues to behave remarkably similarly to previous four-year cycles, despite repeated predictions that the pattern would break.

When measured from their respective cycle lows, Bitcoin topped around day 1,069 two cycles ago and day 1,059 in the following cycle. The latest cycle also peaked around the same historical window.

Previous bottoms arrived around days 1,432 and 1,436. Bitcoin is currently around day 1,354.

"We’re getting pretty close," Cowen said.

Measured from the latest peak, the current bear market is around day 304, compared with an average bottom around day 406 in previous downturns.

Cowen therefore estimates Bitcoin is in roughly the final 25% of its bear market.

Bottom Window Draws Closer

Cowen sees late September through mid-December as the key window for Bitcoin to establish its next major bottom, with October representing a plausible scenario.

Previous cycle bottoms have progressively arrived in January, December and November.

Cowen also described 2026 as a less volatile version of 2018, when Bitcoin remained weak despite relatively resilient equities.

The S&P 500 declined roughly 6% in 2018 while Bitcoin plunged around 73%, demonstrating that record or near-record equity prices do not necessarily translate into strength for crypto.

Accumulation Strategy Takes Shape

Despite expecting potentially lower prices, Cowen has started accumulating Bitcoin below $60,000.

He said investors with longer time horizons should focus more on positioning for the next cycle than perfectly timing the bottom.

"We are nearing the end of the bear market," Cowen concluded. "History would suggest we might not be quite there yet."

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