As the current S&P 500 bull market hits the 3.8-year mark—effectively entering its 46th month—analysts are looking to historical trends for clues on its longevity. According to Ryan Detrick, history suggests the rally is far from over, noting that bull runs reaching this milestone “usually last many, many more years.”
History on the Side of the Bulls
Pointing to long-term historical data, Detrick emphasizes that the current upward trend closely aligns with past market behaviors. “The current bull market is 3.8 years old,” Detrick stated in an Aug. 9 post on X.
Drawing confidence from previous economic cycles, he added, “As we’ve noted many times, once a bull gets to three years old, they usually last many, many more years.”
This perspective offers a confident counter-narrative to lingering anxieties about a potential market top. For Detrick, the current market trajectory is following a well-worn and positive path.
“This one isn’t looking any different than history,” he affirmed, suggesting that investors have historical reasons to remain optimistic.
Breaking Down the Historical Data
The analysis, sourced from Carson Investment Research and FactSet, illustrates that the average length of a historical bull market sits at 5.6 years. However, several past cycles have vastly exceeded this average, providing the statistical foundation for Detrick’s bullish outlook.
For instance, the formidable bull market that began in December 1987 stretched for an impressive 12.3 years. Similarly, the post-financial crisis rally that kicked off in March 2009 lasted a robust 11.0 years. Even older cycles, like the one starting in June 1949, lasted a healthy 7.2 years.
While some modern bull runs, such as the pandemic-era surge beginning in March 2020, were notably shorter at just 1.8 years, the overarching data supports the premise that surviving past the three-year mark is a strong technical indicator.
With the current market sitting at 3.8 years as of August 2026, historical precedent heavily favors continued, long-term growth for the S&P 500.
Breaking the Sideways Range
In addition to historical longevity, Detrick’s ongoing commentary on X highlights strong current momentum. He recently noted that the S&P 500 successfully broke out of a two-month sideways range, a period of consolidation that followed a massive 16% rally in April and May.
Detrick viewed this 11-week flatline not as a weakness, but as a healthy and expected breather for the index. As he noted to his followers, “an eventual breakout was likely, it just needed a pause”.
Addressing how markets traditionally digest massive gains, Detrick explained, “Bull markets can correct two ways. One is through price and the other via time.”
With the index officially breaking upward once more, he confidently declared that investors are “Back to your regularly scheduled bull market.”
This renewed upward trajectory is further underscored by the market’s sheer strength this year, with Detrick highlighting that the S&P 500 has already notched “26 new all-time highs for ’26”.
How Have Markets Performed In 2026?
The S&P 500 index has advanced 13.11% year-to-date. Similarly, the Nasdaq Composite index was up 14.87%, and the Dow Jones gained 11.69% YTD.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, closed higher on Friday. The SPY was up by 0.61% at $773.26, while the QQQ advanced by 1.17% to $723.03.
Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), closed up 0.27% at $539.62 on Friday.
In premarket on Monday, SPY was up 0.14%, QQQ advanced by 0.38%, and DIA declined by 0.0074%.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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