CoreWeave, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWV) reports second-quarter earnings after the close today, with the call at 5 p.m. ET.
Analysts expect revenue of roughly $2.56 billion, more than double the year-ago figure, alongside a loss of about $1.40 per share. The stock sits roughly 35% below its pre-earnings May peak.
Beyond the headline numbers, Kalshi traders are betting on what management will talk about, from Nvidia and Anthropic to storage and government contracts.
What Kalshi Predicts CoreWeave Will Say
“Storage” leads the board at 97%, with supplier “Solidigm” at 79%. CoreWeave signed a multi-year deal last week for priority access to the SSD maker’s drives, calling storage a critical constraint as industry supply tightens.
“Nvidia” requires three separate mentions to pay out and trades at 91%. CoreWeave’s AI cloud is built around Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) GPUs, and its expanded agreement with Meta (NASDAQ:META) includes some of the initial deployments of Nvidia’s next-generation Vera Rubin platform.
“Anthropic” sits at 73%. CoreWeave signed a multi-year deal in April to support the Claude family of models, a contract CEO Michael Intrator described to Bloomberg as multibillion-dollar.
“Meta” trades at 69%. A day before the Anthropic announcement, CoreWeave expanded its Meta agreement to roughly $21 billion of AI cloud capacity through December 2032.
“Government” sits at 67%. CoreWeave launched a dedicated federal unit last fall and partnered with government technology contractor Leidos (NYSE:LDOS) last month to bring secure AI cloud infrastructure to U.S. defense and intelligence agencies.
What Kalshi Predicts CoreWeave Will Skip
“Autonomous” is at 43%, even though CoreWeave launched what it calls unified agentic AI capabilities in May, pitching a closed loop where agents improve autonomously in production.
“China / Chinese” trades at 38%. CoreWeave has spent recent months touting its No. 1 ranking for inference speed and price-performance on Chinese lab Moonshot AI’s Kimi K2.6 in independent benchmarking, but traders lean toward China itself going unmentioned.
“Tariff” sits at just 17%, even though rising component prices led the company to lift the low end of its capex guidance last quarter. Management cited higher component pricing rather than tariffs.
“CrowdStrike” sits at 25%, even though CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD) and CoreWeave announced a global partnership in November to secure AI workloads with the Falcon platform.
“Marimo” is at 14%. It refers to the open-source Python notebook company CoreWeave acquired in October, suggesting traders see little chance management mentions one of its own recent acquisitions.
Reading the Board
Options traders are pricing a move of about 13% in either direction.
Bank of America says the debate has shifted from demand to execution, meaning how quickly capacity comes online and margins improve, while Oppenheimer calls capacity-delay fears overblown.
CoreWeave itself expects margin progress, calling last quarter’s 1% adjusted operating margin the low point. It guided to second-quarter adjusted operating income of $30 million to $90 million, against $650 million to $730 million of interest expense.
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