S&P 500 Eyes Records, Fed Hike Odds Near 51% Before CPI: Stock Market Today

U.S. equities drifted either side of the flatline by midday Tuesday, with the S&P 500 hovering just below the record high it tested at Monday’s close, as diplomatic signals out of the Persian Gulf took the heat out of crude’s rebound and pulled Treasury yields back from multi-decade highs.

President Donald Trump hardened Washington’s negotiating stance in a Truth Social post, requiring Tehran to pay for war damages.

Meanwhile, Pakistani and Qatari officials countered with a more constructive read, flagging progress toward an agreement that would restore oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. 

WTI crude still added 1.4% to $83.29 a barrel, extending a weekly advance of 9.9% and leaving the U.S. benchmark up 45% year-to-date. Brent crude rose 1.3% to $88.84, up 11.8% over the past week. 

Treasuries caught a bid. The 10-year yield eased to 4.69%, down two basis points after clearing 4.71% on Monday, while the policy-sensitive 2-year slipped to 4.24% and the 30-year held at 5.24%.

Rate expectations remain the swing factor. Traders are pricing roughly a 51% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September meeting, up from 44% a day earlier, after Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said multiple increases may be needed to return inflation to 2%.

Wednesday’s consumer price report is forecast to show headline inflation cooling to 3.4% from 3.5%, with core at 2.5%.

Across U.S. equity markets by midday Tuesday, moves were narrow and rotational rather than directional, with small caps the clear standout.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% to 7,745, holding within a whisker of its 7,793.68 record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 51 points, or 0.1%, to 53,940.

The Nasdaq 100 lagged, down 0.4% to 29,500. The Russell 2000 outperformed, rising 0.5% to 3,030.

Gold — tracked by the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) — gave back a fraction of a powerful run, slipping 0.3% to $4,380.31 an ounce.

Tuesday’s Performance In Major US Indices

Updated by 12:20 p.m. ET

According to the Benzinga Pro platform:

• The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO) slipped 0.1%.
• The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA) eased 0.1%.
• The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) fell 0.4%.
• The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) rose 0.5%.

Energy and Homebuilders Lead as Software Slides

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLE) led all sectors with a 1.3% gain as crude firmed.

The Industrials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLI) and the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLU) each rose 0.7%.

The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLP) was the weakest sector, down 0.4%, followed by the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLRE) at down 0.3% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLV) at down 0.2%.

At the industry level, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:ITB) topped the board with a 2% gain as yields backed off, followed by the Invesco Solar ETF (NYSE:TAN), up 1.8%, and the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (NYSE:XOP), up 1.5%.

Software was the standout loser, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (BATS:IGV) down 0.8%.

NIQ Global Intelligence PLC (NYSE:NIQ) was the session’s standout, surging 38.6% after a broad second-quarter beat. Adjusted EPS of 27 cents topped the 21-cent consensus, revenue of $1.12 billion edged past $1.11 billion estimates; adjusted EBITDA rose 21.9% to roughly $262 million and management lifted full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $1.08-$1.12, a midpoint roughly 12% above prior Street forecasts.