Good Morning Traders!

Today’s economic calendar brings us the final major inflation data of the week before Friday’s University of Michigan sentiment report. At 8:30AM ET, markets will receive July PPI Final Demand, Core PPI excluding Food and Energy, and PPI excluding Food, Energy and Trade alongside Weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims. Following this week’s CPI report, today’s PPI data gives traders another important look at inflation pressures further up the production pipeline while Jobless Claims provide a simultaneous update on labor market conditions. The combination makes the 8:30AM ET window the primary volatility event of the session. 

The details of PPI could be especially important because producer prices can provide clues about future cost pressures and ultimately influence expectations for consumer inflation. A softer than expected report could reinforce the view that inflation pressures are moderating, potentially pushing Treasury yields lower and supporting equities. A hotter report could challenge that narrative, particularly if multiple underlying measures show persistent price pressure. Jobless Claims add another dimension to the reaction, meaning markets could be forced to interpret conflicting signals if inflation and labor data point in different directions.

Federal Reserve commentary begins even before the data, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack participating in a moderated Q&A at 8:15AM ET, followed by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin at 8:40AM ET. Treasury activity then becomes increasingly important later in the session with bill announcements and auctions before the 30 Year Bond Auction at 1:00PM ET. That auction could become a meaningful second catalyst for Treasury yields after markets have had several hours to digest PPI, particularly if demand materially surprises expectations. 

Tomorrow brings the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report along with closely watched one year and longer term inflation expectations, giving markets one final important read before the week concludes. With PPI, Jobless Claims, Fed commentary, and a 30 Year Treasury auction all capable of influencing rate expectations today, traders should remain prepared for multiple periods of volatility rather than focusing exclusively on the opening release. Watch Treasury yields for confirmation, allow the initial PPI reaction time to develop, and remain disciplined around the major data windows.

Now, we will discuss SPY, QQQ, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, META, and TSLA.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)

SPY is currently trading around 774.25 as markets prepare for the final major inflation release of the week with July PPI arriving alongside Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30AM ET. Following this week’s CPI report, today’s producer inflation data gives traders another important look at underlying price pressures and could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve if the numbers materially surprise. If buyers defend 774.25 following the initial reaction, a move toward 780.25 may develop, followed by 786.25 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 792.25 would reinforce the broader bullish structure. 

If SPY loses 774.25 with conviction, sellers may press into 768.25. A breakdown there could expose 762.25, while continued weakness may bring the 756.25 region into focus. The relationship between equities and Treasury yields should be particularly important following the release, as a hotter PPI could pressure bonds and push yields higher while softer inflation could provide support for risk assets. 

Traders should also be aware that today’s rates catalysts extend beyond the opening data. The 30 Year Bond Auction at 1:00PM ET has the potential to produce another meaningful move in yields during the afternoon, giving the market two distinct opportunities for volatility before tomorrow’s Michigan sentiment report.

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ)

QQQ is currently trading around 724.50 and remains particularly sensitive to today’s inflation data because of the relationship between growth stock valuations and interest rates. Following CPI, PPI provides another opportunity for markets to reassess whether inflation pressures are continuing to moderate. A favorable inflation reading accompanied by falling Treasury yields could support technology, while hotter data and rising yields could quickly pressure the index. 

If buyers defend 724.50, price may advance toward 731.50, followed by 738.50 if momentum strengthens. Sustained strength above 745.50 would indicate renewed institutional demand across large cap technology. If 724.50 fails to hold, sellers may drive price toward 718.00. A deeper breakdown could expose 711.50, while continued weakness may bring the 705.00 region into play. 

Watch the reaction in Treasury yields alongside QQQ after 8:30AM ET and again around the 30 Year auction. Confirmation between falling yields and technology strength would make an upside move more convincing, while rising yields combined with weakness across semiconductors and mega cap technology could reinforce downside momentum.

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

AAPL is currently trading around 303.25 and attempting to stabilize following recent weakness. With the broader market focused heavily on inflation and interest rates, AAPL may be influenced more by index flows and macro positioning than company specific developments during today’s session. 

If buyers defend 303.25, price may rotate toward 308.50, followed by 313.75 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 319.00 would indicate improving institutional participation and a stronger recovery attempt. If 303.25 breaks lower, sellers may test 298.25 quickly. Continued downside pressure could extend into 293.25, while deeper weakness may bring the 288.25 region into focus. 

The psychological 300 area should also be monitored closely. Acceptance below that region would weaken the near term structure, while a PPI driven flush followed by a reclaim could attract buyers looking for a reversal.

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)

MSFT is currently trading around 493.25 after slipping back below the important psychological 500 level. Today’s inflation data could play an important role in determining whether buyers can reclaim that area or whether 500 begins acting as overhead resistance. With MSFT carrying substantial weight in the major indices, its response can also provide useful confirmation of broader technology sentiment. 

If buyers defend 493.25, price may advance toward 500.50, followed by 507.75 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 515.00 would signal renewed institutional sponsorship and improve the short term structure. If 493.25 fails to hold, sellers may press into 486.25. A deeper pullback could test 479.25, while continued weakness may bring the 472.25 region into play. 

A strong reclaim and acceptance above 500 alongside falling Treasury yields would be constructive. Conversely, repeated rejection from 500 following the morning data could signal that sellers remain in control of the immediate structure.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

NVDA is currently trading around 224.00 and continues to demonstrate relative strength as semiconductors remain an important source of market leadership. Because higher growth technology stocks can be particularly sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations, today’s PPI report and subsequent Treasury reaction could have an outsized influence on NVDA. 

If buyers defend 224.00, a move toward 231.25 may develop, followed by 238.50 if semiconductor momentum strengthens. Sustained trade above 245.75 would indicate renewed upside expansion and stronger sector leadership. If 224.00 fails to hold, sellers may test 218.00 quickly. Continued downside could extend into 212.00, while deeper weakness may bring the 206.00 region into focus. 

NVDA can also provide an important confirmation signal for QQQ. If the broader technology index rallies while NVDA and semiconductors fail to participate, the move may lack leadership. Strong participation across both would make an upside reaction considerably more convincing.

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)

GOOGL is currently trading around 345.00 and attempting to establish support after a period of notable weakness. Today’s macro environment could provide the catalyst needed to determine whether buyers begin stepping back into the stock or whether the recent downside trend continues. 

If buyers defend 345.00, price may rotate toward 351.50, followed by 358.00 if momentum improves. Sustained strength above 364.50 would indicate a more meaningful recovery and improving institutional participation. If 345.00 fails to hold, sellers may guide price toward 339.00. A breakdown there could expose 333.00, while continued weakness may bring the 327.00 region into play. 

Relative performance will be important. If QQQ responds positively to PPI while GOOGL remains weak, that divergence would suggest company specific selling pressure remains present despite a favorable macro backdrop.

Meta Platforms Inc (META)

META is currently trading around 581.00 and has pulled back from the 600 area as traders reassess recent momentum. Today’s inflation data could influence whether buyers begin defending the current region or whether the stock experiences another leg lower alongside broader technology weakness. 

If buyers defend 581.00, a push toward 588.50 may develop, followed by 596.00 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 603.50 would put the psychologically important 600 region back under buyer control and improve the short term structure. If 581.00 breaks lower, sellers may guide price toward 574.00. A deeper pullback could test 567.00, while continued weakness may bring the 560.00 region into focus. 

A reclaim of 600 would represent a meaningful improvement after the recent pullback. Until then, traders should watch whether rallies continue attracting sellers or whether META begins showing renewed relative strength against QQQ.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA)

TSLA is currently trading around 326.25 and continues to experience elevated volatility as traders balance company specific momentum with the broader macro environment. Tesla frequently amplifies risk on and risk off moves, making today’s combination of PPI, yields, and broader equity sentiment particularly important. 

If buyers defend 326.25, a move toward 334.50 may develop, followed by 342.75 if momentum continues. Sustained strength above 351.00 would indicate stronger speculative participation and improving short term structure. If 326.25 fails to hold, sellers may test 318.25 quickly. Continued downside pressure could extend into 310.25, while deeper weakness may bring the 302.25 region into play.

The reaction around 320 should be worth monitoring if sellers gain control. A decisive loss of that area could accelerate momentum, while a quick rejection of lower prices could create the conditions for a stronger intraday reversal.

Final Word: Good luck and trade safely!