On Thursday, Celcuity (NASDAQ:CELC) discussed second-quarter financial results during its earnings call. The full transcript is provided below.
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Summary
Celcuity Inc. reported significant progress in advancing the clinical development of gedatolisib for HR-positive, HER2-negative advanced breast cancer, with FDA approval of Revtropic and positive results from the VICTORIA-1 study.
The company plans to begin shipping Revtropic in late Q3 2026 and will submit a supplemental NDA (sNDA) in the same quarter based on Phase 3 data.
Financially, Celcuity had a net loss of $78.9 million for Q2 2026, with cash reserves bolstered by a $575 million convertible note offering.
Operational highlights include the commercial launch preparations for Revtropic, with infrastructure and personnel in place to support rollout.
Celcuity is expanding its VICTORIA-2 trial for gedatolisib and is progressing in its prostate cancer and potential endometrial cancer studies.
Management expressed confidence in supply chain readiness for Revtropic's launch and outlined expected market size and gross-to-net percentage metrics.
Full Transcript
OPERATOR
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Celcuity's second quarter 2026 financial results conference call and webcast. At this time, all lines are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. If at any time during this call you require immediate assistance, please press star zero for the operator. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jody Sivers, Corporate Communications and Investor Relations at Celcuity.
Please go ahead.
Jody Sivers, Corporate Communications and Investor Relations
Thank you, Ludy, and good afternoon to everyone. Thank you for joining us today to review Celcuity's second quarter 2026 financial results and business update. Earlier today, Celcuity released financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The press release can be found on the Investors section of Celcuity's website. Joining me on the call today are Brian Sullivan, Celcuity's Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder, Vicki Hahn, Chief Financial Officer, as well as Ivar Gorbachevsky, Chief Medical Officer, and Eldon Mayer, Chief Commercial Officer, who will be available during Q&A. As we begin, I would like to remind listeners that our comments today will include some forward-looking statements. These statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties which are outlined in today's press release and in our reports and filings with the SEC. Actual events and results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements and their implications involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results or performance to differ materially from those projected.
On this call we will also refer to non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP financial measures are used by management to make strategic decisions, forecast future results, and evaluate the company's current performance. Management believes the presentation of these non-GAAP financial measures is useful for investors' understanding and assessment of the company's ongoing core operations and prospects for the future. You can find the table reconciling the non-GAAP financial measures to the GAAP measures in today's press release.
And with that I would like to turn the call over to Brian Sullivan, CEO of Celcuity. Please go ahead, Brian.
Brian Sullivan, CEO
Thank you, Jody. And good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining our second quarter 2026 operating and financial update conference call. Celcuity continues to make monumental progress advancing clinical development of gedatolisib for patients with HR-positive, HER2-negative advanced breast cancer. With the FDA approval of Revtropic, positive results from the PIK3CA-mutant cohort of our pivotal VICTORIA-1 study, and a preferred Category 1 recommendation in the NCCN Guidelines, we're well positioned to address a significant unmet need for the tens of thousands of patients affected each year by HR-positive, HER2-negative advanced breast cancer.
We remain on track to begin shipping Revtropic late in the third quarter of 2026, and we look forward to making this important therapy available to patients with advanced breast cancer. Based on the positive data from the PIK3CA-mutant cohort of the Phase 3 VICTORIA-1 study, we plan to submit a supplemental NDA, or sNDA, in the third quarter of 2026. Additionally, our VICTORIA-2 study was expanded to enable evaluation of treatment-naive patients who have endocrine-sensitive breast cancer, positioning gedatolisib regimens to potentially be available for nearly all patients in the first-line setting, irrespective of their endocrine sensitivity or PIK3CA status. In sum, we've had an eventful past few months. I'd first like to review in a bit more depth the status of our clinical development programs and then provide an update on the commercial launch of Revtropic. On July 14, a few days before our PDUFA date, we received notice from the FDA that Revtropic, in combination with fulvestrant with or without palbociclib, was approved for the treatment of patients with HR-positive, HER2-negative locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer without a PIK3CA mutation detected following progression on or after treatment with at least one line of endocrine therapy in the metastatic setting.
A little over two weeks later, NCCN updated their guidelines for HR-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer treatment, recommending both the Revtropic triplet and doublet regimens as preferred Category 1 regimens for second-line or subsequent treatment for tumors without a PIK3CA mutation. We're very encouraged by the panel's rapid review and recommendation. In June, we presented positive efficacy and safety results from the PIK3CA-mutant cohort of the VICTORIA-1 Phase 3 trial at the ASCO annual meeting.
Primary efficacy analysis of the gedatolisib triplet demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in PFS—progression-free survival—compared to alpelisib, a PI3K alpha inhibitor, and fulvestrant. Median PFS was 11.1 months with the gedatolisib triplet versus 5.6 months with alpelisib plus fulvestrant, with a hazard ratio of 0.5. The secondary endpoint comparing the gedatolisib doublet versus alpelisib plus fulvestrant, which was not part of the primary efficacy analysis in the hierarchical order, also demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in PFS compared to alpelisib and fulvestrant. Median PFS was 11.3 months with the gedatolisib doublet versus 5.6 months with alpelisib plus fulvestrant, with a hazard ratio of 0.5:1. The safety data for the gedatolisib triplet and doublet were consistent with previously reported data from the wild-type cohort of VICTORIA-1. Now, we've since updated the analyses of the treatment discontinuation rate due to an adverse event for gedatolisib and alpelisib in the PIK3CA-mutant cohort using the same methodology that determined the discontinuation rate due to an adverse event for the PIK3CA wild-type cohort presented in the Revtropic label.
For patients who received the gedatolisib triplet and gedatolisib doublet, 5.2% and 3.8% of patients discontinued gedatolisib due to an adverse event, respectively. For patients who received alpelisib, 19% discontinued treatment with alpelisib due to an adverse event. We believe the lower gedatolisib treatment discontinuation rate for the mutant cohort than was reported in the wild-type cohort reflects the fact that the discontinuation rate was higher early in the overall VICTORIA-1 study and then fell as physicians gained experience.
Since a much higher proportion of wild-type patients were enrolled during this period than mutant patients, the impact of this initial higher discontinuation rate early in the study fell disproportionately on the wild-type cohort and thus we believe the treatment discontinuation rate for gedatolisib reported for the mutant cohort—roughly 4% to 5%—best represents what we expect to see in a real-world setting. We also updated analyses of the mean number of gedatolisib treatment cycles patients received in the wild-type and mutant cohorts of VICTORIA-1 as of August 2, 2026, and this analysis had a median follow-up period of approximately 21 months for the wild-type cohort and 17 months for the mutant cohort. For patients treated with the gedatolisib triplet in the wild-type cohort, the mean number of treatment cycles for gedatolisib was 9.0, and 16 of these patients, representing 12% of those dosed, are still receiving gedatolisib. For those treated with the gedatolisib triplet in the mutant cohort, the mean number of treatment cycles for gedatolisib was 10.0. Thirty-four of these patients, representing 22% of those dosed, are still receiving gedatolisib.
For patients treated with the gedatolisib doublet in the wild-type cohort, the mean number of treatment cycles for gedatolisib was 9.7, and 15 of these patients, representing 12% of those dosed, were still receiving gedatolisib. And for patients treated with the gedatolisib doublet in the PIK3CA-mutant cohort, the mean number of treatment cycles for patients receiving gedatolisib was 11.3, and 10 of these patients, representing 19% of those dosed, are still receiving gedatolisib.
Analyses of mean treatment cycles for Revtropic in the VICTORIA-1 trial are particularly relevant for assessing the commercial potential of Revtropic since they incorporate the effect that patients who remain on Revtropic for extended periods of time have on the likely usage expected in the real world. The median duration of treatment metric truncates this effect and thus underestimates drug usage for a patient population. We expect to provide further updates to results from both the wild-type and mutant cohorts of VICTORIA-1 at medical conferences later in the year.
Now, with the FDA approval of our NDA in hand and positive data from the mutant cohort, we expect to submit the data from the mutant cohort to the FDA as an sNDA in 3Q26, and we expect to submit VICTORIA-1 Phase 3 data for both the wild-type and mutant cohorts to global regulatory authorities following the sNDA submission. The gedatolisib regimens have demonstrated the potential to improve the standard of care in the second-line setting regardless of the PIK3CA status of a patient's tumor, and we believe the results from the VICTORIA-1 study validate our pioneering approach to targeting cancers involving the PI3K, AKT, mTOR—or PAM—pathway.
Additionally, these results augur well for the Phase 3 VICTORIA-2 trial we have underway to advance development of gedatolisib in the first-line setting for patients with advanced breast cancer. In May we announced that we were expanding the VICTORIA-2 trial to include a second study—Study 2—evaluating the efficacy and safety of gedatolisib in combination with palbociclib and letrozole in patients with treatment-naive, endocrine-sensitive HR-positive, HER2-negative advanced breast cancer, and these are women whose cancer relapsed or progressed 12 months or more after completion of adjuvant endocrine therapy or those with de novo metastatic disease without prior endocrine therapy exposure. Endocrine-sensitive patients represent approximately two thirds of the women in the U.S. newly diagnosed with advanced breast cancer each year. Current standard-of-care therapies for these patients provide median progression-free survival of approximately 25 months. Study 1 of the VICTORIA-2 trial, which was already ongoing, is evaluating gedatolisib in combination with palbociclib and fulvestrant in patients with treatment-naive, endocrine-resistant HR-positive, HER2-negative advanced breast cancer, and these are patients whose breast cancer progressed while receiving, or within 12 months of completing, adjuvant endocrine therapy. Results from the Phase 1b clinical trial that we ran several years ago provided strong evidence that the PAM pathway is an important disease driver in treatment-naive patients with advanced breast cancer. In this early Phase 1 study we evaluated gedatolisib, palbociclib, and letrozole as first-line treatment in 41 patients with endocrine-sensitive HR-positive, HER2-negative advanced breast cancer. Median PFS was 48.6 months, which compares favorably to historical data of approximately 25 months for ribociclib plus letrozole.
Ribociclib plus letrozole are the therapy that we're using as the control in our VICTORIA-2 trial for endocrine-sensitive patients. The objective response rate was 79%, which again compares favorably to historical data of 53% in the first-line setting for ribociclib plus letrozole. In light of the positive results for the PIK3CA wild-type and mutant cohorts of VICTORIA-1 and the promising preliminary data for the gedatolisib triplet as first-line treatment, we're optimistic about the results of both our first-line studies.
Successful development in this first-line setting would offer the potential to advance the standard of care for the approximately 90,000 women each year who are diagnosed with late-stage HR-positive, HER2-negative advanced breast cancer in the U.S., irrespective of their endocrine sensitivity or PIK3CA status. Our advancement of a subcutaneous gedatolisib formulation is ongoing with the goal of demonstrating clinical equivalence to the current intravenous formulation of gedatolisib.
The subcutaneous formulation is aimed to support potential future indications for gedatolisib regimens that may result in duration of treatment periods greater than several years. And now let's turn to our Phase 1b/2 trial that's evaluating gedatolisib in combination with darolutamide in men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. In the dose-finding portion of the Phase 1b study, evaluation of a 240 milligram dose of gedatolisib was completed.
No adverse events led to treatment discontinuation of gedatolisib, and dose-limiting toxicity criteria for dose reduction were not met. This allowed us to begin evaluation of a 300 milligram dose, which is ongoing. Once the dose-finding portion of the study is completed, we expect to select two potential recommended Phase 2 dose levels and control-arm options. For the randomized Phase 2 portion of the study, we expect to provide updated clinical data and additional visibility into our development strategy for prostate cancer during the fourth quarter of 2026.
Now I'd like to discuss our launch plans and the commercial opportunity for Revtropic. We began laying the groundwork for a potential gedatolisib launch over 24 months ago. During this period we've engaged over 1,000 key opinion leaders and community breast cancer experts, over 250 key accounts, major oncology organizations including GPOs, state societies and special interest groups, as well as patient advocacy groups. Our unbranded marketing campaign at pampathway.com has already driven awareness of the PAM pathway, with metrics tracking well ahead of industry benchmarks.
CME and third-party peer-to-peer programs and regional events have further increased levels of awareness about the unmet need in the second-line setting. The buildout of the commercialization infrastructure needed to support successful launch of Revtropic is now complete, and commercial launch activities for Revtropic commenced immediately after approval. Our 88 oncology sales specialists, who have an average of 24 years of industry experience, are calling on physicians, supporting installation of Revtropic order sets within the electronic health record systems of their accounts, and in-servicing infusion centers and pharmacies.
Our Strategic Accounts, Payer Reimbursement, Medical Science Liaison, and KOL-focused teams are following through on the groundwork they laid prior to Revtropic approval. Payer and strategic account pathway dossiers have been submitted, and formal efforts to get included on formularies and pathways are in process. All of these efforts are designed to offer patients and providers rapid access and seamless support. Shipments of Revtropic are expected to begin late in the third quarter of 2026.
Now, wholesale acquisition cost, or WAC, of Revtropic, which has been reported to the drug pricing compendia, will be $10,000 per vial, or $30,000 per cycle of treatment. Once Revtropic is commercially available, to enable treating physicians to obtain gedatolisib on behalf of their eligible patients prior to commercial availability of Revtropic, Celcuity opened an expanded access program last week, and shipments to these physicians have begun. Based on analysis of published epidemiological data, we estimate there are 37,000 patients in the U.S. receiving second-line treatment for HR-positive, HER2-negative advanced breast cancer. Assuming an average of roughly 10 cycles of treatment for Revtropic per patient at the WAC price, we estimate the total addressable market for Revtropic in the wild-type and mutant setting combined is potentially over $6 billion annually. And that concludes my remarks. I'd now like to hand the call over to Vicki to review our finances.
Vicki Hahn, CFO
Thank you, Brian, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll provide a brief overview of our financial results for the second quarter of 2026. Our second-quarter net loss was $78.9 million, or $1.44 per share, compared to a net loss of $45.3 million, or $1.04 per share, for the prior-year period. Our non-GAAP adjusted net loss was $58.7 million, or $1.07 per share, for the second quarter of 2026, compared to non-GAAP adjusted net loss of $40.5 million, or $0.93 per share, for the prior-year period.
Research and development expenses were $31.1 million for the second quarter of 2026 compared to $36.4 million for the prior-year period. The $5.3 million decrease was primarily due to a $7 million decrease in clinical trial costs, which was primarily driven by decreased costs for the Victoria 1 Phase 3 clinical trial. The remaining decrease was primarily due to a $5 million decrease in license milestone costs, partially offset by a $3.8 million increase in employee-related and consulting expense and a $2.9 million increase in manufacturing and other costs.
Selling, general and administrative expenses were $35 million for the second quarter of 2026 compared to $7.6 million for the prior-year period. The $27.4 million increase was primarily due to a $14.5 million increase in employee expenses, largely driven by the hiring of additional personnel within our commercial function to support the anticipated launch of Reptorpic. The remaining $12.9 million increase was primarily due to a $10.8 million increase in costs to support pre-commercial launch activities, including consulting expenses, professional fees, and expanding infrastructure costs, and a $2.1 million increase in other administrative expenses.
In aggregate, $23.4 million of the $27.4 million selling, general and administrative increase related to commercial headcount additions and other launch-related activities. Net cash used in operating activities for the second quarter of 2026 was $55.4 million compared to $36.2 million for the prior-year period. The additional cash used in operating activities quarter over quarter of $19.2 million was primarily due to non-GAAP adjusted net loss of $18.2 million and working capital adjustments of $1 million.
Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $754 million as of June 30, 2026 compared to $441.5 million as of December 31, 2025. The $312.5 million increase was primarily driven by the convertible note offering completed in June 2026. This resulted in gross proceeds of $575 million and net proceeds of $557.2 million. The proceeds were offset by $137 million repayment of our term loan and $110.5 million cash used in operating activities.
Additional cash provided by financing activities of $2.8 million was primarily driven by proceeds from the exercise of common stock options and employee stock purchases. We expect cash, cash equivalents and investments to finance our operations at least into 2029. I will now hand the call back to Jody.
Jody Sivers, Corporate Communications and Investor Relations
Operator, could you please open the call for questions?
OPERATOR
Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star followed by the number two. Please, for your first question. And your first question comes from the line of Tara Bancroft with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Tara Bancroft, Analyst at TD Cowen
Hi. Thanks so much for taking the question. So I guess what I'd really like to understand is more of what underscores your confidence in the late Q3 shipments. Like, for instance, are you initially launching with the existing clinical supply, and if so, how long would that last you? And how long is the process for setup with the backup manufacturing, and what does that entail? I know that that sounds like a lot of questions, but I'm just getting at the same thing of your level of confidence in supplying the launch without delay.
Brian Sullivan, CEO
Sure. As I explained a couple weeks ago, we want to have confidence that our review process with the FDA will proceed according to what we expect to occur, that there are no surprises, and we're very confident about being able to ship beginning at the end of this quarter. So nothing's changed.
Tara Bancroft, Analyst at TD Cowen
Okay, great. I guess just as a follow-up, as part of that review process, do you need an inspection?
Brian Sullivan, CEO
Well, the FDA can do whatever they want, but typically if you are with a manufacturer that has met requirements, they don't necessarily require that. Again, you don't want to really be in the position of projecting what the FDA does or won't do. But we believe the validation data that we have is very consistent with the validation from our first site, and so we would anticipate that the review process will be straightforward.
Tara Bancroft, Analyst at TD Cowen
Okay, great. Thanks so much.
Brian Sullivan, CEO
You're welcome.
OPERATOR
And your next question comes from the line of Mario Raycrop with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Mario Raycrop, Analyst at Jefferies
Hi, congrats on the progress and thanks for taking my questions. I'll follow up on Tara's questions. Just wondering if you can clarify if you've submitted that validation work, the necessary information to FDA yet, or what are the rate-limiting steps remaining there, and do you need FDA to provide any type of sign-off before you can launch with product from that site?
Brian Sullivan, CEO
Well, two things. We submitted the data almost immediately after we got the approval. We had validation, the package of information required to get the FDA to review and for approval, the use of that site. So that's begun, and you can't ship from that new site until you have received the go-ahead from the FDA. That's the limitation on getting access to material from that second site. But again, as we've indicated, we want visibility on the review process for that site, and again we're confident about our ability to ship in the third quarter, late third quarter.
Mario Raycrop, Analyst at Jefferies
Got it. Okay. Maybe one other question: Just on the expanded access program, wondering how many sites or doctors are participating in it, and do you have some patients enrolled already, and will you provide quarterly updates on where you're at with enrollment there?
Brian Sullivan, CEO
Hopefully we're not providing quarterly updates, right, because it'll go away. But yes, we just got the program started last week. I mean, essentially had to get approval, submit to the FDA, as well as get IRB approval, central IRB approval. So that occurred last week, and we've already begun shipping drug to sites where physicians are treating patients.
Mario Raycrop, Analyst at Jefferies
Got it. And then presumably once you have drug launched, then those patients would convert over to commercial drug then.
Brian Sullivan, CEO
Exactly. And that was reflected in the protocol.
Mario Raycrop, Analyst at Jefferies
Got it. Okay. Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.
Brian Sullivan, CEO
You're welcome.
OPERATOR
The next question comes from the line of Brad Canino with Guggenheim. Please go ahead.
Brad Canino, Analyst at Guggenheim
Hey, Brian, thanks for the updates, especially around the prostate cancer progress. It's good to hear. I'm actually wondering about a different cancer study, because I know one of your competitors in the space is doing a lot of work in endometrial cancer, and I'm wondering how you think about that as an opportunity for gedatolisib. I know there's probably some old data that Pfizer conducted, probably not the right regimen and treatment line and setting, etc. So how do you think about bringing that into the development portfolio if that's an opportunity for you guys? Thank you.
Brian Sullivan, CEO
Sure. There's certainly a strong rationale for us to consider that, and we'll be updating folks on our—excuse me—our development plans as we get further into the year. But until then, I can simply say that some preliminary data that was generated previously was indicating that even as monotherapy GETA can induce objective response, and the underlying drivers of the disease include the role of the PIK3CA pathway, and for a certain significant cohort, the endometrioid patient population, the hormonal pathway is also involved.
So there's certainly a strong rationale for us to consider developing in that setting.
Brad Canino, Analyst at Guggenheim
Right. And then in prostate specifically, too, I'm tracking this somewhat from afar, and I'm hearing KOLs have a pretty intense conversation around capivasertib and its potential role there as the first inaugural pathway inhibitor on the PAM pathway to go after that. What do you think, as you have the conversations with those same investigators and KOLs, we can actually learn from the capivasertib data as a foreshadow of the opportunity for something like gedatolisib?
And what should we keep in mind that could be different as you approach it? Thank you.
Brian Sullivan, CEO
Sure. So capi, as you know, is approved in breast cancer to treat patients who have a PIK3C mutation. Its efficacy was comparable to the efficacy for alpelisib in its Phase 3 study in a similar setting as what we were just studying. And gedatolisib, as we announced recently, showed double the activity relative to alpelisib, which we think is a reasonable proxy for what capi is capable of doing. And so we think the fact that capi got an approval for the PTEN loss population—essentially that's the most relevant mutation of the PAM pathway in prostate cancer—and so that drug is limited to that roughly 40% of patients with PTEN loss.
But we think it augurs well for us. They got an approval in patients who are at an earlier stage than the patients we're evaluating; they were evaluating hormone-sensitive prostate patients. We're evaluating castration-resistant patients. But the fact they got off the line with a positive study in a mutant cohort similar to what they did in breast cancer, we think is translatable to what we may be able to do. We have encouraging data, we'll be updating that data later this year, and we believe that they demonstrate that this pathway, the PAM pathway, plays a role as a driver and that when combined with an androgen receptor inhibitor, you can induce an improvement in outcomes relative to androgen receptor alone. And that's ultimately our hypothesis. We're going to be evaluating that in a different setting, but it certainly provides another demonstration of the importance of this pathway in this disease.
Thanks, Brad.
Brad Canino, Analyst at Guggenheim
You're welcome.
OPERATOR
Your next question comes from the line of Eva Forteo with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Eva Forteo, Analyst at Wells Fargo
Hi, team. Congrats on the progress and thanks for taking our question. A quick one from us on the EAP: Can you provide more color on how long you expect it will take to transition the patient from the EAP to commercial following the launch in late Q3?
Brian Sullivan, CEO
You know, I don't want to get committed to a particular timeline. I mean, certainly we have to be very sensitive to the needs of the patient and make sure that there's no risk of interruption in supply. And so, again, it could be very site-specific, patient-specific, depending on their insurance situation and other factors that may be relevant. But the intent is certainly to transition those patients to commercial supply. That's embedded within the protocol and is well understood by the participating investigators.
So, you know, and that's a very standard approach. But again, we would expect that transition to occur. It may occur in that two-week gap from day 15 to the next cycle of treatment—in effect, day 29. But again, the overall goal is to make sure that there's no disrupt to the patient's access to the therapy, and we'll essentially accommodate whatever might be required to ensure that that transition occurs smoothly.
Eva Forteo, Analyst at Wells Fargo
Got it. Very helpful, thanks.
OPERATOR
Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Behrens with Leerink Partners. Please go ahead.
Isabel, Analyst at Leerink Partners
Hi, this is Isabel on for Andy. Thanks for taking our question. We were wondering if you could give more color on the expected gross-to-net.
Brian Sullivan, CEO
Thanks. Sure. So we've done an analysis that we think is fairly robust, actually very robust, that kind of identifies the various components of the discounts and they don't involve discounts that reflect discounting of the drug per se, but they reflect channel differences that are just a function of the makeup of those channels. But for our drug, we expect the gross-to-net percentage to be about 80%. The discounts involved from WAC will be about 20%. And based on data we've seen for oral therapies, that gross-to-net discount can be about 30%.
So we think we'll be able to capture a higher percentage of the WAC than the corresponding oral therapies in this category are able to capture.
OPERATOR
All right, thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Oliver McCammon with LifeSci Capital. Please go ahead.
Oliver McCammon, Analyst at LifeSci Capital
Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe just a broader question on the commercialization and your work engaging physicians, but curious: What proportion of community oncology practices, as you think about associated infusion centers, as well as geography, you think would be amenable to IV therapy in this setting? And then relatedly, do you think there are any learnings to take from what we hear is fairly common use of IV-administered anti-HER2 even in second line?
Thanks again.
Brian Sullivan, CEO
Sure. Well, we think nearly every community practice has access to infusion centers because some of the most important therapies in breast cancer used to treat breast cancer are infused therapies. HER2 is one you mentioned. Pembrolizumab in TNBC is another. Herceptin and Perjeta, which are two anti-HER2 antibodies, are also standard-of-care treatments in advanced breast cancer, HER2-positive breast cancer, and then all the chemotherapies, or many of the chemotherapies that are prescribed, are infused.
And so the practice of medicine treating breast cancer patients requires access to infusion centers. So we don't think there's going to be any barrier to a community oncologist prescribing getisulosib and ensuring their patient can get infused. And these docs represent the community. Treaters treat about 80% of. Well, thank you. I hope you all heard the last answer to my question. Operator, if there's additional questions, happy to answer those.
OPERATOR
Oliver, do you still have any additional questions? All right, thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Kulpit Patel with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Kulpit Patel, Analyst at Wolfe Research
Yeah, hey, good afternoon and thanks for taking my question. Just one from us on the prostate cancer program. Can you give us a little more granularity on what to expect in fourth quarter? Is it just PSA response data or are we going to see rPFS data as well? And then what would be a, you know, what success looked like to you in that area? Thank you.
Brian Sullivan, CEO
Sure. So we expect to provide additional data. It could include PSA50 data as well as updated progression-free survival data and looking at different subgroups of patients as well as data from the 240 milligram dose as well. The data with 300 milligram dose may not be mature enough to present. So it'll be data that hasn't been presented before that we think will hopefully shed some good light on the program itself.
Kulpit Patel, Analyst at Wolfe Research
Okay. And any color on what would be encouraging in your view for rPFS?
Brian Sullivan, CEO
Well, I think the standard of care today, or rather I would say there's kind of two components to that answer. Current patients in the second-line setting who've progressed on, let's say, prior abiraterone can expect to receive five to six months median PFS. Similarly, if they are treated with docetaxel instead of a hormonal therapy. So the minimum bar to beat would be three to four months better than those options. Pluvicto's out there as an option as well.
They're offering patients north of 10 months. And so our expectation would be that we would need at least to be comparable to Pluvicto. We think there'd be advantages to use of our drug versus their drug in that setting and certainly we would hope to be superior, but that if we're able to demonstrate typical three to four months superiority relative to what would be an add-on therapy with geta versus a switched androgen receptor inhibitor, or at least comparable efficacy to Pluvicto, that we could potentially play an important role in that treatment.
Of course we know there's some other data that could be coming down the pike and that'll be very relevant to any assessment that we make.
Kulpit Patel, Analyst at Wolfe Research
Okay, that's super helpful. Thank you.
Brian Sullivan, CEO
You're welcome.
OPERATOR
Your next question comes from the line of Gil Bloom with Needham. Please go ahead.
Jonathan, Analyst at Needham (for Gil Bloom)
Hi guys, this is Jonathan on for Gil. Just a quick question about the secondary manufacturing site for the supplemental filing. What is the timeline that you guys are expecting for hearing back from the FDA? Is it similar to an sNDA timeline, not an sNTA?
Brian Sullivan, CEO
There's multiple processes and steps along the way, but, you know, it can involve a review as brief as two months or four months. And again, if there's issues, which again we don't expect to occur, you know, it can take longer. And so, you know, there's a standard process of four-month review process. It can be shorter, but again, you're interacting with the agency during that process and you'll gain an understanding from that initial feedback, you know, what, what, if any, issues, you know, they may have or considerations they may be wanting us to address.
But that's what we think we'll find out relatively early in the process.
Jonathan, Analyst at Needham (for Gil Bloom)
And just a quick follow-up. If this supplemental filing was approved, what percent of supply would you expect would be coming from the second site at full capacity?
Brian Sullivan, CEO
You know, that's a very tactical — it'll be appropriate. We'll be using, you know, inventory from both sites and managing inventory accordingly. It's important to keep both sites going. It's just you want to create a rhythm for them, and so you're always going to be balancing mix of product between those two sites.
Jonathan, Analyst at Needham (for Gil Bloom)
Thanks again and congrats again on all the progress.
Brian Sullivan, CEO
You're welcome.
OPERATOR
And your next question comes from the line of Stephen Wheele with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Stephen Wheele, Analyst at Stifel
Yeah, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. Just curious where you are in terms of preparing a publication of the mutant data and whether you believe compendia listing for use in these patients could be achieved before formal label expansion. And then was also just wondering how you're thinking about communicating launch progress to the Street and what metrics you think you might be providing to us over the next few quarters. Thanks.
Brian Sullivan, CEO
Sure. Regarding the article, we have, we have submitted an article to a journal and, you know, that process, you know, is variable in time. It can, you know, take, you know, three months, it can take six months. We would hope to have it be on the shorter range of that timeline, but it's not 100% in our control obviously. But that process is well underway. As far as, you know, mutant usage, I mean we, we can't prom mutant usage but we would have the opportunity potentially to — and it's up to the NCCN panels — to have the NCCN make a recommendation based on published data.
They can't make recommendations just based on, for instance, a presentation given at a major medical conference. They need to see data from a peer-reviewed journal before they would consider making changes to their recommendations. But if they made recommendations, those are widely followed by payers and, if the recommendations are appropriate — what the payers require — then physicians would be in a position to prescribe the medicine and their patients to get reimbursed for it.
But again, not something we can certainly drive or really discuss at all in the clinical context. But those are variables that could be present in the marketplace. And as far as progress, we'll be reporting sales obviously as we go. We don't have the granularity of data that you have with oral therapies. We have — we ship to a site, buy-and-bill — but we don't get a prescriber name on that therapy. And so we don't get as much visibility. There's not a name on the prescription, for instance.
So we don't get as much visibility as, let's say, an oral medication gets. So the granularity of data won't be as high as people might be used to for oral therapies. We will be doing survey data that will give us a view on probably 40% to 50% of patients treated, but there will be a lag in that. That'll be two- to three-months lag. So it won't be current or necessarily representative. It'll provide us important information to help manage the business, but it won't be real-time evaluation.
We internally will be certainly tracking and be able to intuit based on our analyses where the drug is going, who's at the locations, and be able to do analysis like that. But we won't have sufficient specificity to, for instance, identify how many docs prescribing, how many re-prescribed it, how many patients on therapy. We'll simply have, in real-time setting, the actual number of vials shipped to sites. And we expect that to represent demand. There really won't be inventorying of this drug.
Our distributor or 3PL will be delivering this drug overnight in the great majority of cases. And so we don't expect — and some of the larger sites, depending on their overall approach, may maintain some stock based on the number of patients they have on the drug — so there could be in certain facilities a little bit of loading. But we wouldn't expect that to represent, you know, let's say, more than a cycle of treatment. We think that would be unlikely.
Stephen Wheele, Analyst at Stifel
All right, that's very helpful.
Brian Sullivan, CEO
Thank you. You're welcome.
OPERATOR
And your next question comes from the line of Sylvan Thorjunt with Citizens. Please go ahead.
Josh, Analyst at Citizens (for Sylvan Thorjunt)
Hey, this is Josh on for Silva, and thanks for taking the question. Yeah, so you mentioned plans to submit the sNDA for the mutant population in 3Q. Could you maybe just walk us through some of the potential regulatory timelines, maybe, you know, submission to filing and then, you know, potential for a more rapid review period?
Brian Sullivan, CEO
Thanks. Yep, sure. No, because it's an sNDA, while they will need to accept the sNDA, the clock starts for the review when the final submission is made. And so, you know, from the time we complete our submission to whatever the prescribed PDUFA date is would be the expected review cycle. If it's a priority review, it would be six months from submission. If it's a regular review, it would be 10 months from submission.
Josh, Analyst at Citizens (for Sylvan Thorjunt)
Great. Thank you.
OPERATOR
I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would like to turn it back to our CEO, Brian Sullivan, for closing remarks.
Brian Sullivan, CEO
Well, thank you for participating in our call today for your ongoing support and look forward to seeing you potentially at conferences over the next few months. Take care.
OPERATOR
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.
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