Investor Gary Black frequently comments on social media about a potential merger of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) and SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX). The managing partner at The Future Fund sees benefits for a tie-up, but expects Tesla investors to sell immediately.
Gary Black on Tesla/SpaceX Merger
In recent weeks, Black has warned against the valuation of Tesla stock and its underperformance to the major stock market indexes.
There could be good news for Tesla shareholders though with Black predicting SpaceX makes a bid for the EV company.
"I fully expect $SPCX to make an all-equity offer at a healthy premium to acquire $TSLA sometime this year," Black tweeted Friday. "It makes Elon’s life easier, and there are clearly shared synergies."
Black references Elon Musk, who is the CEO of both public companies.
On a potential buyout offer of Tesla, Black doesn’t see current investors in the company sticking around.
"Many $TSLA shareholders will sell on any deal announcement rather than wait the 6-12 months for any deal to close. And most will not have the fortitude to stomach the approximate 50% SPCX dilution and watching the value of the SPCX equity to be delivered for their TSLA shares decline prior to any deal close."
Black said Tesla stock has underperformed the Nasdaq-100, as tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), despite "high odds" of a buyout offer.
Asked about the potential premium in a buyout offer, Black says his expectation is a "+20% premium," with the value to Tesla shareholders declining after the deal announcement with SpaceX issuing 50% more shares.
Tesla Stock Valuation
Black was also asked why he doesn’t buy Tesla stock today over SpaceX if he expects a buyout offer.
"At a 2026 P/E of 195x and +35% future long-term EPS growth, I have low interest in $TSLA at its current price," Black tweeted.
Over the weekend, Black was cautious on Tesla’s valuation in another social media post.
"I rarely see $TSLA bulls on X posting on whether TSLA is cheap or expensive. It seems that since they love the products and leadership team, they don’t care about the valuation," Black tweeted.
The investor said Tesla’s current 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 200x and long-term growth expected of +25% will make it "hard for an investor buying today to make money at TSLA’s current valuation."
"For those who say valuation doesn’t matter, remember this basic rule of investing: Loving the product doesn’t mean you should love the stock."
Photo: Paulm1993 / Shutterstock – ek
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