Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares are swinging on Monday. Rothschild Redburn upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral rating and sharply raised its price target.
- Apple stock is holding steady today. What should traders watch with AAPL?
Rothschild Redburn Upgrades Apple, Raises Price Target to $400
Rothschild Redburn analyst James Cordwell upgraded Apple to Buy from Neutral and raised his price target to $400 from $260, a 53.85% increase that implies about 30.75% upside from the stock’s current price of $305.93.
Cordwell pointed to Apple’s tightly integrated hardware, custom chips and expanding services business as the core of his thesis, estimating Apple’s installed base at 2.55 billion devices with customer loyalty he described as difficult for competitors to match. He said Apple’s services business remains the most valuable part of the company, growing three times faster than product sales and carrying gross margins of 75%, more than double the 37% margin on hardware.
Cordwell acknowledged that closed-source AI models from companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic pose a real risk to Apple’s services business by changing how people search for information and discover apps, threatening what he called Apple’s highest-margin, highest-multiple business. But he said increasingly capable, free, open-source AI models could give Apple a path to rebuild its Apple Intelligence platform on its own terms.
Beyond the AI debate, Cordwell forecast iPhone sales growing at a 12% five-year compound annual rate, which he said sits 3% to 14% above consensus estimates for fiscal 2026 through 2030. He credited that outlook partly to Apple’s move into premium foldable devices with the iPhone Ultra.
Combining stronger-than-expected iPhone earnings with the Apple Intelligence reset, Cordwell said his estimates now sit 18% above fiscal 2030 consensus, and he said he has confidence that Apple’s valuation multiple relative to peers remains well supported.
Apple’s Longer-Term Trend Stays Intact Even as Near-Term Momentum Cools
Stepping back, Apple’s chart still points higher over the long run. Shares were trading about 9% above their 200-day moving average of $280.67 and roughly 3.8% above their 100-day average of $294.61, keeping the broader uptrend in place.
Closer in, though, the picture has softened. Apple traded about 3.7% below its 20-day moving average of $317.40 and around 1.1% below its 50-day average of $309.09, a setup where rallies tend to face more resistance than usual. Momentum has cooled alongside that pullback, with the MACD line sitting below its signal line and a negative histogram, typically a sign that buying pressure is fading unless the stock can climb back above that baseline. Even so, the underlying structure remains intact: the 20-day average still sits above the 50-day average, and the golden cross from earlier this year, with the 50-day average above the 200-day, keeps the longer-term bias tilted higher.
For traders watching the next move, the levels are simple and round. Resistance sits at $335, near the top of the stock’s recent trading range, while support at $300 stands out as the first level everyone is likely to watch if the pullback continues.
AAPL Shares Are Trading Lower
AAPL Price Action: Apple shares were down 0.03% at $305.84 at the time of publication on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro.
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