Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) traders have traditionally looked to exchanges such as Binance for the fastest read on where the cryptocurrency is heading. New research suggests that relationship may be starting to flip.
The high-frequency trading team at Synth, a financial forecasting firm, analyzed second-by-second trades since January and found that moves in Kalshi’s 15-minute Bitcoin contracts increasingly predict what Binance does next, according to research published Tuesday.
The correlation between a preceding Kalshi move and Binance’s subsequent 0-to-2-second move rose from 0.036 in January to 0.145 in June and 0.173 in August.
The correlation remains modest in absolute terms. What stands out is that it has grown almost fivefold in eight months, which Synth says has occurred alongside rising liquidity and trading volume on Kalshi.
Kalshi May Be Starting to Move First
Synth argues that sophisticated firms on Kalshi are not simply reacting to Bitcoin’s current price. They forecast where it will trade five to 30 seconds ahead using order books, perpetual futures, liquidations and proprietary order flow.
A firm expecting Bitcoin to rise can buy the relevant Kalshi contract before that move appears on Binance. Synth called the result a “market-based ensemble of short-horizon forecasting models.”
The research findings come as Bitcoin squeezed over $1 billion on shorts for a 6% move to $68,500.
Wall Street Money May Explain the Timing
Kalshi said in May that institutional trading volume had surged 800% over the previous six months, as quantitative and market-making firms increasingly entered the space.
Cantor Fitzgerald said Wednesday it plans to give its roughly 3,000 institutional clients, including hedge funds and family offices, access to Kalshi, with Susquehanna providing pricing and liquidity. Deeper professional liquidity may mean information reaches Kalshi prices faster than it did in January.
Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
One Big Problem With the Claim
Synth tested only one direction, from Kalshi to Binance. When a trader asked about the reverse test, the firm said it may address the question in a follow-up.
A separate study found evidence of Binance leading Polymarket: after large Bitcoin moves on Binance, Polymarket quotes moved a median 347 milliseconds later. That research covered Polymarket’s own 15-minute Bitcoin contracts, the same horizon Synth studied on Kalshi, though it did not examine Kalshi itself. It shows why Synth needs to test both directions before concluding Kalshi leads Binance in price discovery.
If Synth’s trend holds, Kalshi’s crypto markets may no longer simply track Bitcoin. Its traders could increasingly be helping reveal Bitcoin’s next move before it appears on Binance.
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