President Donald Trump praised prediction markets Wednesday.
Hours later, researchers identified 152 Polymarket wallets that made $8 million betting on military outcomes with a 97.2% win rate.
“We’re ensuring that America remains the undisputed leader, not only in Bitcoin and crypto, but also technologies like prediction markets,” Trump said.
His son, Donald Trump Jr., advises both Polymarket and rival Kalshi, which reportedly gave him roughly $300,000 in shares.
The Military Bets That Kept Winning
The Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) examined unusual bets on military and defense events, according to research first reported by Reuters.
Many accounts appeared shortly before placing successful wagers, then cashed out and disappeared. Researchers said the pattern suggested some traders may have had access to confidential military information.
An earlier ACDC study found military long-shot bets won 52% of the time, compared with 14% across the platform. The 97.2% win rate applies only to the unusually successful accounts identified in the latest report.
Bots Followed the Money Before Iran Strikes
The bigger risk is that suspicious bets could tip off other traders before military operations begin.
Because Polymarket’s trades are publicly visible on the blockchain, researchers warned that foreign intelligence agencies could spot the same signals.
Hours before U.S. strikes on Iran in June 2025, one account bet on military action. A trading bot followed with a $200,000 wager, while another trader put down $100,000. Researchers found similar activity ahead of U.S.-Israeli strikes on Tehran in February.
The researchers did not prove the traders had inside information. Polymarket says it monitors suspicious activity and has referred dozens of wallets to authorities. Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Benzinga.
White House, Wall Street and Regulators
The White House warned staff in March against using confidential government information to trade on prediction markets. Federal prosecutors in April charged Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who allegedly made more than $400,000 betting on the operation that removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. He has pleaded not guilty.
Among those alongside Trump on Wednesday was Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (NYSE:ICE) CEO Jeffrey Sprecher, whose company has agreed to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket.
A CFTC advisory committee is scheduled to discuss prediction markets and manipulation concerns at 3:05 p.m. ET Thursday. Its members include representatives from Polymarket, Kalshi and Intercontinental Exchange.
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Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
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