Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) stock is trading lower after it rallied around 170% on Wednesday on upbeat data from individualized cancer therapy for advanced skin cancer.
At a pre-planned interim analysis, Merck & Co Inc. (NYSE:MRK) and Moderna’s investigational combination delivered statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements in recurrence-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival compared to standard Keytruda alone.
Analyst Upgrades Moderna On Intismeran Outlook
On Wednesday, William Blair upgraded Moderna from Market Perform to Outperform.
Analyst Myles Minter adjusted the financial model for Moderna to reflect an increased probability of success for intismeran’s approval in adjuvant melanoma (raised from 65% to 90%).
The analyst also extended the model for intismeran sales in melanoma to 2040, with expected intismeran sales to exceed $5.4 billion to Moderna based on a 50%/50% profit share with Merck.
William Blair assumes a WAC price of $475,000, which reflects pricing estimates approximating currently approved cell therapy treatments in oncology.
Moderna’s Intismeran Opportunity Beyond Melanoma
Beyond adjuvant melanoma, William Blair also added intismeran revenue for indications currently in pivotal studies—non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and renal cell carcinoma (RCC).
For NSCLC, Minter has forecasted sales for Moderna in 2040 of about $10 billion given the large TAM and about $3.3 billion from RCC to Moderna after Merck’s profit share.
"…fundamentally the company now has a multibillion-dollar peak sales opportunity in adjuvant melanoma to drive top-line growth and further data in several oncology settings could solidify Moderna’s foothold here," analyst Minter wrote in an investor note on Thursday.
William Blair views the data as largely de-risking of intismeran’s utility in combination with pembrolizumab, with a safety profile that keeps the bar for clinical uptake low.
However, the analyst notes that investor debate will now turn to how much the INTerpath-001 data have de-risked intismeran in other cancer settings and if this product can be as broad as Keytruda, which generated around $31.7 billion in 2025 revenue for Merck.
MRNA Price Action: Moderna shares were down 19.89% to $139.69 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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