Ethereum’s (CRYPTO: ETH) 30% rebound last week may still face one major test before a more durable recovery, according to prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen.

Is ETH Low Already In?

In a podcast on Monday, Cowen noted that after a 70% rebound from its lows around $1,600, Ethereum is now approaching its regression-model "fair value" around $2,300-$2,400. It is also testing its 200-day moving average.

He sees a stronger case for Ethereum having already bottomed than Bitcoin, pointing to its history of forming cycle lows during the summer.

“If there’s no drop in stocks starting in the next month or two, then the odds of the low being in for Ethereum are probably like 70%,” he said.

Cowen wants to see ETH hold above that level for another month or two, noting a similar breakout in August 2025 was reversed the following month.

In the near term, Cowen is watching Ethereum’s 200-day moving average, an area where it previously struggled in May.

However, his longer-term outlook is considerably more constructive.

If Ethereum withstands any late-year equity correction and holds its lows, Cowen believes the setup could become increasingly bullish heading into 2027. This potentially paves the way for a renewed bull market and eventual new all-time highs.

Is Equity Correction Biggest Risk?

Cowen identified an equity correction towards the end of the year as the primary threat to Ethereum.

Historically, ETH has amplified declines in equities. He pointed out that roughly 20% S&P 500 corrections in 2022 and early 2025 coincided with approximately 50% declines in Ethereum.

A more modest 10% stock-market correction could translate into roughly a 25% ETH pullback, potentially allowing Ethereum to establish a higher low. A 20% equity decline, however, could put ETH’s roughly $1,500 cycle low at risk.

"If you don’t have a drop in stocks, then the Ethereum low is highly likely in already," Cowen said.

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