Albemarle Corp. (NYSE:ALB) stock traded lower Tuesday as JPMorgan reduced its earnings estimates and price forecast for the lithium producer.
Analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas maintained a Neutral rating and lowered the December 2027 price forecast to $140 from a previous December 2026 forecast of $160.
Lower Lithium Prices Pressure Albemarle Outlook
JPMorgan cut its 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate by 14.4% to $2.88 billion from $3.37 billion. It also reduced its 2027 estimate by 18.4% to $2.93 billion from $3.59 billion.
The firm lowered its 2026 adjusted earnings estimate to $12.05 per share from $14.20. Its 2027 estimate fell to $11.65 from $15.35.
The revisions reflect weaker lithium prices. China lithium carbonate prices averaged $24,810 per metric ton in the second quarter. However, they have averaged about $21,625 so far in the third quarter.
JPMorgan now expects lithium prices to remain in the low-$20-per-kilogram range. The firm previously modeled prices in the mid-$20 range. Each $1-per-kilogram change could affect Albemarle’s annual EBITDA by about $250 million.
Third-Quarter Profit Expected to Fall
JPMorgan expects third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $668 million. That would fall from $858 million in the second quarter but rise from $226 million a year earlier.
The firm also expects lower quarterly lithium sales volume and a weaker product mix.
Meanwhile, Albemarle faces delays at the Greenbushes CGP3 plant following a June fire. The plant restarted Aug. 1, but JPMorgan now expects full production rates by the end of the first quarter of 2027.
The bank said Albemarle trades near its price forecast and carries a fair valuation for a high-quality but volatile lithium producer.
Albemarle Price Action
ALB Price Action: Albemarle shares were down 5.16% at $134.21 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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