Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL) reports second-quarter earnings after the bell Thursday, one day after Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) reported strong results.
Polymarket traders put the chance of adjusted earnings topping $0.93 per share at 83%.
On Kalshi, traders are betting on which words CEO Matt Murphy will say, and the board reads like a map of the company’s transformation into an AI infrastructure play.
The stock is up roughly 175% this year.
What Kalshi Predicts Marvell Will Say
“Celestial” leads the board at 83%, with “Photonic Fabric” at 76%. Celestial AI is the optical interconnect firm Marvell acquired in February, and its Photonic Fabric technology uses optical links to connect AI chips, reducing reliance on copper. Marvell says a major cloud customer has chosen Celestial AI’s technology to connect AI chips inside its next-generation systems.
"Scale Across" trades at 82%. The phrase refers to linking multiple data centers so they can operate like one giant AI system. Marvell expects the interconnect modules used for these networks to reach a $1 billion annualized run rate in fiscal 2028.
"Nvidia" sits at 79%. The chipmaker is simultaneously an investor, competitor and partner: it put $2 billion into Marvell in March, even as Marvell helps hyperscalers build custom AI chips that can reduce reliance on Nvidia GPUs and still plug into Nvidia’s NVLink ecosystem.
"Inference" at 74% and "Storage" at 71% are linked: AI inference generates huge caches of temporary data, and Marvell is developing technology that shifts some of it from expensive HBM into cheaper SSD storage.
“XConn,” at 71%, is timely. Marvell said the PCIe switching firm it bought in February should begin generating revenue in its fiscal third quarter.
"Prepayment" trades at 70%. Marvell plans to spend about $1 billion this year paying suppliers in advance to reserve chipmaking capacity, a sign management expects AI demand to keep rising.
"Pipeline" trades at 65%. Marvell last year put its custom-silicon pipeline at more than 50 opportunities worth $75 billion in potential lifetime revenue. Since then, Google has struck a broad deal to buy Marvell chips for AI infrastructure, giving investors another reason to look for a higher pipeline estimate.
What Kalshi Predicts Marvell Will Skip
"AWS / Amazon" trades at 20%, while "Trainium" sits at just 6%. Marvell has a five-year custom AI chip agreement with Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), whose Trainium processors are AWS’s homegrown alternative to Nvidia GPUs. JPMorgan expects the Trainium 3 ramp to boost Marvell, although Marvell itself refers more vaguely to its "flagship XPU" program.
"India / Indian" trades at 19%. Marvell recently announced a $250 million investment in India over three years, including plans to expand its facilities and double headcount as it builds out AI engineering capacity.
Reading the Board
JPMorgan expects Marvell to guide third-quarter revenue near $3.1 billion, above the Street’s roughly $3.03 billion.
Nvidia’s strong results Wednesday reinforced expectations that AI infrastructure spending remains robust, sending Marvell shares higher before its own report. But that also raises the bar: investors will want Marvell to show that demand for its custom chips, networking and optics can support its aggressive fiscal 2027 and 2028 growth forecasts.
Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
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