Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) is already the world’s most valuable company. Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold now thinks it may reach another almost unthinkable milestone: $1 trillion in annual sales.
Leopold raised his price target 46% to $515 from $352 after Wednesday’s earnings, declaring “$1T in Sales by FY29 Seems Possible.”
Nvidia just reported $96.2 billion in quarterly revenue, while FactSet’s fiscal 2029 consensus sits just under $750 billion. Leopold is effectively arguing Wall Street may still be about $250 billion too low.
Why $1 Trillion Suddenly Looks Possible
Nvidia expects revenue to grow roughly 70% in fiscal 2028, above what Wall Street had been expecting. That would put annual sales around $690 billion to $700 billion.
From there, $1 trillion is not as distant as it sounds. Nvidia would need roughly another 43%-45% of growth in fiscal 2029 to get there.
Leopold’s point is that demand is not the problem. CEO Jensen Huang told analysts that customers want far more compute than Nvidia can currently supply, leaving supply as the main constraint on growth.
What Leopold doesn’t spell out publicly is how Nvidia closes the supply gap. The company says capacity and manufacturing yields should improve, while its 70% fiscal 2028 outlook reflects what it can currently supply with confidence.
Nvidia may not need physical capacity to grow as quickly as revenue. Its revenue opportunity per gigawatt rises from roughly $25 billion with Blackwell to $40 billion with Vera Rubin as it sells more of the complete AI system.
Leopold’s $1 trillion call may also assume Nvidia is leaving itself room to beat. If supply improves faster than expected, more of today’s unmet demand could turn into revenue above the company’s current outlook.
What Has to Go Right
Prediction market traders are bullish on Nvidia’s staying power. Polymarket gives Nvidia about a 79% chance of ending 2026 as the world’s largest company by market value, against roughly 13% for Apple and 9% for Google, in a market with $6.3 million in volume.
For Leopold’s math to work, AI spending needs to stay extraordinary, the global supply chain must keep scaling and Vera Rubin’s successors must defend Nvidia’s economics against custom silicon.
Huang’s core claim on the call was that AI now generates productive, profitable tokens, meaning more compute can create more revenue. That assumption carries the entire scenario.
Image: Shutterstock
Login to comment