IDC projects a record 16.7% drop in global smartphone shipments to just over 1 billion units in 2026, though total market value will still grow 6.3% to $613 billion as average selling prices surge 27.6% to $581.
While Android shipments contract 24.3%, market leaders Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Samsung, and Huawei are best positioned to navigate the downturn—with Apple’s iOS market share expected to gain nearly four percentage points, reaching a record 23.6%.
The memory shortage is driving much of the disruption. NAND and DRAM costs have risen more than 300% year over year, and IDC expects memory prices to remain elevated until at least 2028.
IDC Vice President Francisco Jeronimo said vendors are increasingly passing those higher costs on to consumers as they lose the ability to absorb them.
Apple Gains Share As Android Retreats From Entry-Level Phones
IDC expects Android shipments to decline as manufacturers cut lower-priced devices that have become harder to sell profitably.
Apple faces far less volume pressure. IDC expects iOS shipments to fall only 1.3%, helping its market share rise to a record 23.6%.
Huawei is also gaining ground. IDC expects HarmonyOS shipments to nearly triple to 51 million units as Huawei maintains disciplined pricing and captures share in China.
Foldables Give Apple Another Growth Driver
IDC expects foldable smartphone shipments to rise 12.6% in 2026 to 22.9 million units and accelerate another 18% in 2027.
Senior Research Director Nabila Popal said Apple’s entry has fundamentally changed the category’s outlook.
IDC forecasts Apple will ship more than 17 million foldable iPhones in 2027 and capture roughly 40% of global foldable shipments.
IDC also expects Apple’s foldable devices to generate more than $45.7 billion in value and account for over half of the category’s total market value.
Smaller Android vendors concentrated in entry-level devices face the greatest pressure as the market shifts toward fewer units, higher prices and greater concentration among leading brands.
AAPL Price Action: Apple shares were up 0.23% at $315.29 during premarket trading on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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