Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) could hit $90,000 by October if September ends up being a positive month, according to market analyst Erik Crown.
The former NYSE market maker told Cointelegraph on Wednesday that he spotted all the signals he needed to call a bottom around Bitcoin’s $60,000 July low:
| Signal | Reading |
| Weekly RSI | Dropped below 30 |
| MVRV | Fell below 1 |
| Puell Multiple | Dropped below 0.5 |
| 21-week EMA | Stretched more than 25% from price |
| Exchange volume | Below the 5th percentile of its entire history — quieter than 95% of all days on record |
Crown argued that this kind of extreme apathy has historically preceded major reversals, pointing to 2015, 2019, and 2022 as prior examples.
He also flagged a simple but compelling statistic: any time Bitcoin traded more than 50% below its previous high, the median return one year later was 116%, rising to 337% at the two-year mark with a 96% win rate.
Green September Could Set Up $90,000 in October
Crown laid out his roadmap based on historical September and Q4 data going back to CME futures listing in 2018.
When September closes green, Bitcoin has historically averaged about 6.5% gains up to the quad witching date, which would put price around $83,222, clearing the May swing high at $82,800 and flipping the weekly trend definitively bullish.
A weekly higher high at that level, Crown argued, makes a return to a downtrend highly unlikely.
From there, October’s median return of roughly 12% applied to an $80,000 starting point puts Bitcoin above $90,000.
A green Q3, which Crown considers highly probable, has historically led to Q4 median gains of nearly 28%, pointing toward six figures before year end.
Why Crown Is Cautious on Altcoins
Crown added that almost every altcoin eventually goes to zero after its first cycle, with rare exceptions like Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH).
He agreed with the emerging view that the next altcoin winners will be revenue-generating protocols with tokenomics that return value to holders, citing Hyperliquid as measured by Hyperliquid Strategies (NASDAQ:PURR) and Uniswap (CRYPTO: UNI) as examples.
He noted that even in prior cycles, only a few specific sectors like AI agents and memecoins produced real returns, rather than a broad everything rally like 2017.
His broader point: timing matters far more with altcoins than with Bitcoin, and most holders end up giving back gains by holding too long.
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