Good Morning Traders!

Today’s economic calendar kicks off the shortened trading week with limited scheduled data. The primary economic release comes at 11:00AM ET with the New York Fed’s 1-Year Inflation Expectations, followed by several Treasury announcements and auctions throughout the session. The 3 and 6 Month Bill Auction arrives at 11:30AM ET, followed by the 3 Year Note Auction at 1:00PM ET. July Consumer Credit closes out the scheduled U.S. data at 3:00PM ET. 

The larger focus this week will be on the back-to-back inflation reports Thursday and Friday. PPI arrives Thursday and will provide an updated look at producer level inflation and underlying input cost pressures. Traders will be watching whether pipeline inflation continues to moderate or shows signs of reacceleration, particularly within the core measures. A meaningful surprise could begin moving Treasury yields and rate expectations before the more important consumer inflation report arrives the following morning. 

Friday’s CPI report will likely be the primary macro catalyst of the week. Headline and Core CPI will provide the clearest new evidence on consumer inflation and could materially influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. The combination of PPI Thursday followed immediately by CPI Friday creates the potential for a significant repricing in Treasury yields, the dollar, and equities if both reports reinforce the same inflation narrative. Conflicting reports could instead produce more difficult and volatile price action as markets determine which signal deserves greater weight. 

With those larger catalysts still several sessions away, today may be more heavily driven by positioning, Treasury yields, and technical levels. The 3 Year Note Auction could create some afternoon movement in rates, but traders may otherwise remain reluctant to establish aggressive macro positions ahead of Thursday and Friday. Expect inflation positioning to become increasingly important as the shortened week progresses.

Now, we will discuss SPY, QQQ, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, META, and TSLA.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)

SPY is currently trading around 767.50 as markets begin the shortened trading week with a very light economic calendar and attention already shifting toward the inflation data later this week. If buyers defend this level, a move toward 773.50 may develop, followed by 779.50 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 785.50 would improve the short term structure and reinforce buyer control. 

If SPY loses 767.50 with conviction, sellers may press into 761.50. A breakdown there could expose 755.50, while continued weakness may bring the 749.50 region into focus. With few major catalysts today, technical levels, Treasury yields, and positioning ahead of Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI could have greater influence on price action.

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ)

QQQ is currently trading around 718.50 and remains sensitive to changes in Treasury yields as markets begin positioning for this week’s inflation reports. If buyers defend this pivot, price may advance toward 725.50, followed by 732.50 if momentum strengthens. Sustained strength above 739.50 would indicate improving institutional demand across technology. 

If 718.50 fails to hold, sellers may drive price toward 712.00. A deeper breakdown could expose 705.50, while continued weakness may bring the 699.00 region into play. With PPI and CPI approaching, rate expectations should become an increasingly important driver for growth stocks as the week progresses.

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

AAPL is currently trading around 318.00 and continues to demonstrate relatively stable price action compared with several other mega cap technology names. If buyers defend this pivot, price may rotate toward 323.25, followed by 328.50 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 333.75 would reinforce the constructive short term structure. 

If 318.00 breaks lower, sellers may test 313.00 quickly. Continued downside pressure could extend into 308.00, while deeper weakness may bring the 303.00 region into focus. Relative performance against QQQ should remain useful for evaluating institutional demand.

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)

MSFT is currently trading around 496.25 and remains directly beneath the psychologically important 500 level. If buyers reclaim and establish acceptance above 500, price may advance toward 503.50, followed by 510.75 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 518.00 would materially improve the short term structure. 

If 496.25 fails to hold, sellers may press into 489.25. A deeper pullback could test 482.25, while continued weakness may bring the 475.25 region into play. The battle around 500 remains one of the clearest near term sentiment gauges for MSFT.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

NVDA is currently trading around 230.75 and remains an important leadership gauge for semiconductors and QQQ. If buyers defend this pivot, a move toward 238.00 may develop, followed by 245.25 if momentum strengthens. Sustained trade above 252.50 would indicate continued upside expansion and reinforce semiconductor leadership. 

If 230.75 fails to hold, sellers may test 224.75 quickly. Continued downside could extend into 218.75, while deeper weakness may bring the 212.75 region into focus. NVDA’s sensitivity to rates makes Thursday and Friday’s inflation data particularly relevant later this week.

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)

GOOGL is currently trading around 336.25 and remains under pressure relative to several of its mega cap peers. If buyers defend this level, price may rotate toward 342.75, followed by 349.25 if momentum improves. Sustained strength above 355.75 would indicate a more meaningful recovery attempt. 

If 336.25 fails to hold, sellers may guide price toward 330.25. A breakdown there could expose 324.25, while continued weakness may bring the 318.25 region into play. Relative performance against QQQ remains particularly important given GOOGL’s extended period of underperformance.

Meta Platforms Inc (META)

META is currently trading around 613.50 and continues to hold above the psychologically important 600 area following its recent recovery. If buyers defend this pivot, a push toward 621.25 may develop, followed by 629.00 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 636.75 would reinforce the improved short term structure. 

If 613.50 breaks lower, sellers may guide price toward 606.50. A deeper pullback could retest 599.50, while continued weakness may bring the 592.50 region into focus. Maintaining acceptance above 600 would keep the recovery considerably more constructive.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA)

TSLA is currently trading around 354.75 and continues to consolidate following its recent recovery. If buyers defend this pivot, a move toward 363.25 may develop, followed by 371.75 if momentum continues. Sustained strength above 380.25 would reinforce the improving short term structure and indicate stronger speculative demand. 

If 354.75 fails to hold, sellers may test 346.75 quickly. Continued downside pressure could extend into 338.75, while deeper weakness may bring the 330.75 region into play. With few major catalysts today, broader risk sentiment and technical positioning could play a larger role in TSLA’s direction.

Final Word: Good luck and trade safely!

Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.