Tesla Cybercab Could Beat Waymo on Cost by Up to 30 Cents A Mile, Goldman Says

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) could operate its Cybercab for up to 30 cents per mile less than rival autonomous vehicles if it hits its targeted production costs, according to Goldman Sachs.

Goldman analysts estimated that Tesla’s targeted $20,000 to $30,000 Cybercab cost at scale could give it a 5-cent to 30-cent-per-mile advantage over autonomous vehicles costing roughly $50,000 to $100,000 upfront.

Why Cybercab Could Have a Cost Edge

Goldman said Tesla’s low-cost vehicle design, “unboxed” manufacturing approach and camera-only sensor system could strengthen its robotaxi economics.

CEO Elon Musk has long pitched Cybercab on cost, saying the vehicle could eventually operate for about 20 cents per mile and sell for less than $30,000.

Goldman Says Cheap Hardware Isn’t Enough

The bigger question for investors is whether Tesla can scale its self-driving software across a wider geographic area, according to the note. Goldman remains Neutral on Tesla with a $360 price target.

A broader operating footprint would allow Tesla to generate more revenue while spreading the cost of each vehicle across more miles, Delaney argued.

That remains an area where Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) unit Waymo has a substantial head start. Waymo now offers fully autonomous rides in 14 cities and has more than 4,000 vehicles in its fleet, TechCrunch reported.

Texas records recently showed 420 autonomous Teslas registered in the state, including 45 Cybercabs.

Tesla may have the lower-cost vehicle on paper, while Waymo currently has the much larger operating footprint. Uber, meanwhile, is pursuing a different robotaxi strategy, partnering with autonomous-driving companies rather than building its own vehicles.

Prediction Traders Doubt Musk’s $30,000 Target

Polymarket traders give Tesla just a 17% chance of selling a Cybercab to a retail customer for $30,000 or less by Dec. 31. The contract has attracted more than $55,000 in volume.

Tesla’s $20,000-to-$30,000 target cited by Goldman concerns the vehicle’s cost at scale, while the prediction market concerns its retail price. Traders are nevertheless heavily betting against Musk getting a sub-$30,000 Cybercab into consumers’ hands this year.

Tesla shares closed Tuesday up 4%, according to Benzinga Pro.

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