The new $1,999 foldable iPhone from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) could eventually account for as much as 20% of iPhone revenue, according to Dan Ives, who says roughly 300 million iPhones have gone more than four years without an upgrade.
The Yorkville Ives partner called Apple a “sleeping giant” after Wednesday’s iPhone Duo unveiling and gave new CEO John Ternus an “A-” for his first major product event.
Ives Tops Munster’s Bull Case
Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster raised his estimate for the Duo after seeing the device, saying it could account for 10% of iPhone revenue in fiscal 2027, up from 5%.
“I’ll even further it. It could be 15 to 20%,” Ives told CNBC.
Apple generated $209.6 billion in iPhone revenue in fiscal 2025. At that level, a 20% share would equal about $42 billion in annual sales.
Munster’s 10% estimate assumes a third of Pro Max buyers trade up to the Duo, lifting iPhone revenue about 5% and total Apple revenue about 2.5%.
Before Apple set the Duo’s price, IDC forecast the company would ship more than 17 million foldable iPhones by 2027 at an average selling price above $2,550, generating more than $45.7 billion in value.
300 Million iPhones in the Upgrade Window
Ives has used that estimate since at least 2024, when he argued an aging installed base could fuel an iPhone upgrade cycle.
IDC expects worldwide smartphone shipments to fall 16.7% in 2026 while average selling prices rise 27.6% as memory costs surge. Foldables are one of the few categories it still expects to grow.
Ives said the Duo is only the first step. He expects Apple to roll out more AI capabilities before a bigger push around the iPhone’s 20th anniversary next year.
“What everyone is waiting for is when do you actually have an AI-enabled device for consumers?” he said.
Traders Aren’t Buying It Yet
Prediction traders have become less bullish on Apple’s chances of retaking the valuation crown this year.
Polymarket gives Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) a 79% chance of ending 2026 as the world’s largest company by market capitalization, compared with 14% for Apple. More than $7 million has traded on the market.
Apple briefly overtook Nvidia as Polymarket’s favorite in July after Apple reclaimed the world’s most valuable company title, helped by its own rally and a pullback in Nvidia and other AI chip stocks.
The Duo goes on sale Oct. 23, leaving just over two months before the market resolves Dec. 31.
Apple shares closed 0.28% lower at $315.34 Wednesday.
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