Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is flashing a bull pattern but macro analyst Mike McGlone on Monday warned to “be very careful” getting sucked in ahead of Wednesday’s Fed rate hike.
What McGlone Sees in the Chart
McGlone told The Wolf of All Streets macro panel that Bitcoin’s chart shows an island bottom bull flag with price struggling at the 50-week moving average.
The pattern looks constructive on the surface, but he drew a sharp parallel to gold in Q1 2013, when technicals looked equally strong before a 50% collapse.
His line in the sand is clear: a weekly close above the 50-week moving average forces him to reassess. Until then, he stays cautious.
Macro investor Jordi Visser pushed back directly, pointing out that Bitcoin has held near $78,000 for three straight weeks while oil surged, gold fell, and stocks dropped.
That kind of strength against traditional risk-off pressure is not a warning sign to him.
Visser frames Bitcoin as the financial infrastructure layer that AI agents will need to transact on, tying its long-term value directly to AI adoption rather than just market sentiment.
What the Fed Decision Means for Bitcoin
Jim Bianco told the panel that with Polymarket pricing a September hike at roughly 80% and CME FedWatch above 90%, Wednesday’s decision is effectively locked in.
He noted he cannot recall a single instance in 30 years where markets priced a hike above 80% and the Fed did not deliver.
The critical question now is not whether Warsh hikes but how he frames it. A dovish hike acknowledging inflation progress while calling it insurance could calm the bond market. A hawkish signal pointing to further tightening would hit risk assets hard.
Bianco added that the 10-year yield rising 130 basis points since the Fed’s first rate cut in September 2024 is unprecedented in 60 years of Fed history, with the bond market essentially screaming that policy has been wrong for two years.
Two Catalysts to Watch This Week
The panel flagged two swing factors for Bitcoin this week: Tuesday’s CLARITY Act cloture vote and Wednesday’s Fed decision.
A hawkish hike combined with a failed CLARITY Act vote would test McGlone’s bear case.
However, a dovish hike alongside a CLARITY Act surprise to the upside would validate Visser’s bull case.\
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