U.S. stock futures are trending lower early Tuesday as Wall Street digests rising energy costs, refinery outages, and the start of a critical Federal Reserve policy meeting.
The Polymarket (CRYPTO: POL) crowd is leaning heavily bearish for the Sept. 15 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 15?” contract currently reflects a 32% chance of a higher open.
Why That Number Matters
Traders are navigating a tense geopolitical environment and a highly anticipated central bank decision:
- Lower Index Futures: Equity futures are pointing to a negative open across major benchmarks. Dow Jones futures fell 0.40%, S&P 500 futures dropped 0.30%, Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.32%, and Russell 2000 futures declined 0.39%.
- Geopolitics & Soaring Oil: Energy prices continue to surge amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, with Brent crude reaching $107.48 a barrel, up 1.69%, and WTI crude hitting $103.31, up 1.89%. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) blamed the war for national average gas prices hitting $4.31 a gallon. Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA) criticized the administration for failing to shield Americans from predictable disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran’s Security Chief Mohsen Rezaee stated there will be no negotiations until Tehran’s conditions are met. Adding to supply constraints, ExxonMobil Holdings Corp.‘s (NYSE:XOM) Joliet refinery suffered a power outage, pushing regional fuel prices higher. Additionally, the 10-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5% on Monday for the first time since 2023
- Earnings & Eco Data: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins its highly anticipated two-day policy meeting today. On the economic front, September’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey is scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Tuesday’s earnings docket includes reports from Trip.com Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:TCOM), Forgent Power Solutions Inc. (NYSE:FPS), and Vera Bradley Inc. (NASDAQ:VRA).
The Bull Case and Market Outlook
Despite resistance from the White House, market commentator Louis Navellier expects the Fed to hike interest rates due to rising global market rates and higher energy prices. The key focus will be the FOMC statement, which may indicate whether the Fed is “one and done” or planning further hikes. Navellier noted that while President Donald Trump and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett see no need for a hike, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent might argue that skipping a hike could weaken the U.S. dollar, especially after the European Central Bank raised its rates.
In the tech sector, the AI infrastructure buildout remains a major strategic focus. President Trump labeled the backlash against AI data centers a “sick conspiracy,” arguing that slowing down frontier development only benefits China. For investors, this signals that Washington has a strong incentive to continue supporting massive computing infrastructure investments despite recent pullbacks in semiconductor stocks like Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD).
How the Previous Bet Played Out
The Sept. 14 Polymarket contract resolved “Down.” The contract recorded $60,998 in total trading volume.
On Monday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed lower. SPY fell 0.45% to $760.88, while QQQ fell 0.80% to $709.18. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), also ended 0.25% lower at $524.49.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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