Elon Musk doubled down on his solar thesis on Tuesday, predicting the technology will eventually dominate energy production, with Texas offering a real-world example of rapid adoption.
Musk Sees Solar Dominating Future Energy
"The solar power exponential will continue until all other energy sources are <<0.1%," Musk wrote on social media platform X after venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya highlighted accelerating solar deployment.
In another post, Musk reacted to a chart showing solar’s rise past nuclear generation in Texas, writing, "Solar is so obviously the future."
Texas Solar Surge Backs Musk’s Thesis
ERCOT data shows the shift has been dramatic, though it does not project anything close to Musk’s 99.9%-plus scenario. Solar supplied 10.4% of ERCOT electricity in 2024, overtaking nuclear at 8.4%, while wind supplied another 24.2%. ERCOT says installed solar capacity rose from 698 MW in 2016 to 37,443 MW in 2025.
The Energy Information Administration said solar’s share of ERCOT generation climbed from 4% in 2021 to 12% in 2025. During the first nine months of 2025, utility-scale solar generated 45 TWh, up 50% year over year, while wind and solar together met 36% of grid demand.
The climb is continuing. In a May forecast, EIA projected that utility-scale solar generation in ERCOT would reach 78 billion kWh in 2026, topping coal’s 60 billion kWh for the first time annually.
Texas has paired that buildout with batteries. Reuters reported in July last year that ERCOT added nearly 5 GW of battery storage between summer 2024 and July 2025, helping reduce blackout risk. Texas electricity prices were also about 24% below the national average at the time.
Tesla And SpaceX Scale Solar Ambitions
Musk is putting corporate money behind the thesis. Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is considering a $10.1 billion vertically integrated solar-cell plant in Fort Bend County, Texas, while Musk recently said Tesla and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) are each building toward 100 GW per year of solar-production capacity. He nevertheless acknowledged that "natural gas will still be needed to supplement and bootstrap solar for several years".
Solar also sits at the center of Musk’s broader SpaceX plans. The company envisions large solar arrays powering orbital AI infrastructure, reinforcing his argument that abundant solar energy could become a foundation of future economic activity.
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