Prediction markets show a high likelihood that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will announce a rate hike Wednesday. This would mark the first rate increase since July 2023. Here’s what Benzinga viewers think could happen to stocks after the announcement.
Federal Rate Decision on Deck
On Wednesday, the September FOMC meeting for the Federal Reserve will tell investors whether the decision has been made to raise the interest rate, cut the interest rate, or keep things the same.
With recent reports showing rising costs and higher than expected inflation, a rate hike is likely to be announced on Wednesday. A decision to hike the rate could create increased volatility for the stock market, but the decision may also be priced in based on the high odds from prediction markets and experts.
Benzinga asked viewers of its morning show "PreMarket Playbook" what they think will happen to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), which tracks the S&P 500.
"A rate hike is expected by the Federal Reserve later today. Where do you think the SPY will close?" Benzinga asked.
The results are:
- Higher on the day: 49%
- Lower on the day: 33%
- No change: 18%
A near majority predict the S&P 500 will end Wednesday higher than the previous day. A third of viewers predict that the S&P 500 will end lower on Wednesday. The remaining 18% see no change to the price of the SPY for the day.
The SPY closed at $757.39 on Tuesday. At the time of writing, the ETF is up around 0.3% to $759.60.
A decision is expected around 2 p.m. ET today. The Federal Reserve decision and commentary can be watched below.
“PreMarket Playbook” airs on Benzinga’s YouTube channel Monday through Friday at 8 a.m. ET. The results of the poll are based on 272 responses.
What Happens Next
Wednesday represents only one day after the Federal Reserve decision.
After the decision is announced, investors and analysts will listen for commentary to hear how likely more rate hikes are for the rest of 2026 and 2027. The Federal Reserve has scheduled FOMC events in October and December of this year.
The SPDR S&P 5000 ETF Trust currently trades near its all-time high of $779.37, set back on August 13.
A rate hike could see stocks trade lower as investor look for diversification into other investments like gold and Bitcoin. A rate hike doesn’t necessarily end the current bull market, but could be a setback in investors hoping to see new all-time highs in the short term.
Photo: Rawpixel.com / Shutterstock.com
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