Bitcoin Made a Golden Cross—And Could Drop Below $75,000 Next, Analyst Says

Vocal cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen on Wednesday said Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) could drop to the $70,000 to $75,000 range following its recent golden cross, pointing to a consistent historical pattern across every major Bitcoin cycle.

Cowen posted on his YouTube channel that every Bitcoin golden cross in history has triggered at least a 10% to 15% correction, regardless of whether the broader market was in a bull or bear phase. 

He pointed to two clean examples where the low was already in:

• 2019 — Bitcoin fell 15% after the golden cross, over just three to four days
• 2023 — Bitcoin fell 12% over roughly 10 days around the golden cross

In both cases the correction came, the low held, and Bitcoin went on to new highs. 

At Bitcoin’s recent local high near $82,000, a 10% drop puts price around $73,000 to $74,000 and a 15% drop lands near $70,000, both within what Cowen calls the “realm of expectation.”

Why 2014-2015 Matters Too

Cowen noted that in the cases where the low was not in, like 2014 and 2015, Bitcoin still dropped 10% to 15% first before eventually falling 50% to 60% into deeper lows. 

He drew a direct parallel to today, pointing out that he flagged the 2014 ISM comparison at the start of 2026 when others argued rising ISM meant rising Bitcoin. 

The ISM went up and Bitcoin went down, exactly as it did in 2014.

The same price structure has also repeated. Bitcoin rallied back close to a prior high, stalled just south of it, and now faces the same question that arose in 2014 and 2015: does it hold and push to new highs, or does it form a lower high and roll over?

What to Watch After the Drop

Cowen argued the most important signal comes after any dip to $70,000 to $75,000. If Bitcoin bounces quickly and puts in a higher high, the bull case strengthens considerably. 

If the bounce produces a lower high, that points to the low still being ahead. He noted that in both 2019 and 2023, once the correction ended, Bitcoin was back at new local highs within about a week. 

A slow or weak bounce that fails to reclaim the prior high would be the warning sign to watch.

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