'Focus on Income Generation': ETFs to Watch After the Fed’s Rate Hike

The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% on Wednesday, its first rate hike in three years. Policymakers also signalled another increase could come before the end of 2026, while raising their median 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 3.7% from 3.6% in June.

JoAnne Bianco, senior investment strategist at BondBloxx Investment Management, sees an opportunity in short-to-intermediate duration credit as the Federal Reserve’s renewed focus on inflation keeps interest-rate volatility elevated.

"The signals were all there, but now we know for certain that this Fed is going to act on its warnings about persistent inflation and the risks it poses to long-term economic health," Bianco said.

The backdrop could make the trade-off between bond income and interest-rate risk increasingly important for ETF investors.

Short-Duration ETFs Offer Different Risk-Return Trade-offs

"Volatility in the rate environment is clearly not going away, so we believe investors should focus on income generation in fixed income over long duration exposures," Bianco said. "The higher yields in select short-to-intermediate duration credit sectors look particularly compelling."

That strategy can be illustrated across three types of bond ETFs.

At the shortest end, the iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:SGOV) had a 3.63% 30-day SEC yield as of Sept. 9, with effective duration of just 0.10 years. The fund holds Treasury bills, giving investors minimal exposure to interest-rate movements while keeping income closely linked to short-term rates.

The Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (NASDAQ:VGSH) moves further out the curve. It had a 4.29% SEC yield and 1.9-year average duration as of Sept. 9. Investors get a higher current yield than SGOV but also take on more sensitivity to changes in rates.

For investors seeking additional income through corporate credit, the Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF (NASDAQ:VCSH) had a 4.91% SEC yield and 2.7-year average duration as of Sept. 8. Its higher yield comes with corporate credit risk and greater duration exposure than SGOV or VGSH.

Income Versus Duration

The distinction is important. SGOV prioritises minimal duration risk, VGSH adds modest duration while retaining Treasury exposure, and VCSH adds corporate credit risk in pursuit of higher income.

For investors concerned that further Fed hikes could push longer-duration bond prices lower, shorter-maturity securities also offer another advantage. Bonds mature sooner, allowing proceeds to be reinvested at prevailing yields rather than leaving investors locked into lower rates for years.

With inflation still elevated and the Fed signalling that its rate-hiking cycle may not be over, Bianco’s view puts the focus on where investors can capture income without taking on excessive duration risk.

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