President Donald Trump‘s approval on inflation has fallen to 19%, a new low in the latest Marquette Law School poll.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten called the resulting minus-61 net rating the worst presidential inflation reading on record.
“This is literally the worst net approval rating on inflation for any president,” Enten said Thursday.
“Even Republicans have turned against the President of the United States on inflation,” he added, pointing to net ratings of minus 95 among Democrats, minus 74 among independents and minus 4 among Republicans.
Midterm Markets Shift Toward Democrats
Polymarket traders put a Democratic sweep of the House and Senate at about 60%, up from 51% on Sept. 1. More than $12 million has traded on its congressional balance-of-power market.
The sweep contract is effectively becoming a Senate bet in disguise. Traders put Democratic Senate control at 60%, while the scenario in which Democrats win the Senate but Republicans retain the House sits below 1%.
Democrats lead Republicans 54% to 41% among likely voters in the latest Marquette poll, widening from a 51% to 45% lead in July.
Polymarket Traders Price Another Fed Hike
The Marquette results landed the same day the Federal Reserve raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, its first hike since 2023. Sixteen of 18 policymakers expect at least one more increase this year.
Polymarket traders put the chance of at least one more hike this year at 81%.
The S&P 500 fell 0.44% Wednesday after the Fed raised rates, but was up about 1.1% in Thursday trading as Treasury yields and oil prices eased. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), which tracks the index, followed it higher.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite finished nearly flat Wednesday before rising about 1.6% Thursday, lifting Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq-100.
Tariffs Add to Price Pressure
A Cato Institute/Morning Consult survey published Thursday found 75% of registered voters say tariffs will matter to their midterm vote, while 74% say Trump’s tariffs have increased prices. Even 66% of Republicans said tariffs raised prices.
Among voters who say tariffs will influence their midterm vote, 55% plan to back the Democratic congressional candidate, compared with 36% who plan to vote Republican.
The shift from 2024 is stark. An October 2024 ABC News/Ipsos poll found registered voters trusted Trump over Kamala Harris on inflation by seven points. Marquette now gives Democrats an 11-point advantage over Republicans on handling inflation and the cost of living.
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