The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points Wednesday, marking the first rate hike since 2023. While that move was widely expected in recent weeks, attention now turns to whether there will be another increase before the end of the year. Here’s what Benzinga readers think and how that compares with prediction markets.
Another Rate Hike?
Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, which was unanimous, also came with the dot plot, which implies another rate hike is likely before the end of the year.
With the Fed set to meet in October and December, investors and economists now try to pinpoint when exactly a policy tightening could happen, if at all.
"The dot plot signals another hike, what do you think?" Benzinga asked viewers of "PreMarket Playbook" Thursday morning.
The results are:
- Hike in December: 43%
- No More Hikes: 25%
- Hike in October: 22%
- Hike in Both: 10%
Benzinga viewers point to a rate increase in December being most likely of the four options, and twice as likely as one in October. A quarter of the 210 respondents said no more hikes is most likely, while 10% see rate rises coming in both October and December.
Prediction market Kalshi shows the odds of a rate hike in October at 48%, while there is 53% odds of the rate being maintained in the next FOMC meeting. The Benzinga viewer odds imply a 32% chance of a rate hike in October based on the results for Hike in October and Hike in Both.
Another prediction market on Kalshi asks how many rate hikes will there be in 2026. The odds are 57% for exactly 2 and 23% for exactly 3. Benzinga viewers imply a 65% chance of exactly two hikes and 10% for exactly 3.
The odds for exactly 1 rate hike, which would mean no more, are 19% on Kalshi, which is slightly lower than the 25% odds from Benzinga viewers.
Time will tell whether Benzinga viewers or prediction markets were more accurate with their guesses and odds.
"PreMarket Playbook" airs Monday through Friday on Benzinga’s YouTube channel and is hosted by Ryan Faloona.
The Market Reacts
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), which tracks the S&P 500, closed at $754.05 on Wednesday. This was less than 1% lower than Tuesday’s closing price of $757.39.
In a prior Benzinga viewer poll, 33% of viewers predicted the SPY would trade lower on the day of the Federal Reserve’s September rate decision, while 49% predicted the ETF would be higher on the day. The remaining 18% predicted no change.
While the S&P 500 was down slightly on Wednesday, the markets are rallying higher on Thursday as the rate hike news is digested.
The SPY trades at $762.66 at the time of writing, up 1.1% on the day and trading ahead of Tuesday’s closing price.
Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
Photo: Shutterstock
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