Norsk Hydro (OTC:NHYDY) released second-quarter financial results and hosted an earnings call on Wednesday. Read the complete transcript below.
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View the webcast at https://hydro.zoom.us/j/93578101684#success
Summary
Norsk Hydro reported a strong second quarter with an adjusted EBITDA of 8.9 billion NOK and free cash flow of 4 billion NOK, driven by robust operational performance and higher metal prices.
The company highlighted the agreement to restart Slovalko, a significant step for European industry, and secured a long-term renewable power agreement with Eviny, bolstering its competitive position.
Norsk Hydro expects continued strong demand for low-carbon and recycled aluminium products, maintaining growth in recycling and strengthening partnerships with companies like Mercedes-Benz and Nexans.
Operationally, the company achieved all-time high production levels in its Norwegian casthouses and maintained stable production despite geopolitical and market volatility.
Management emphasized the importance of safety and operational excellence, alongside strategic initiatives aimed at decarbonization and technology advancement.
Full Transcript
OPERATOR
Good morning and welcome to Norsk Hydro's second quarter 2026 presentation and Q&A. We will shortly begin with a presentation by President and CEO Eivind Kallevik, followed by a financial update from CFO Trond Olaf Christophersen. We will then finish off with a Q&A session. Please note that if you would like to ask questions during the Q&A, you can do so at any time by typing your question into the box on your screen. When we get to the Q&A, I will then ask your questions on your behalf directly to Eivind and Trond Olaf, and with that I turn the word over to you, Eivind.
Eivind Kallevik, CEO
Thank you, Erik, and good morning from me as well. I am pleased to present a strong set of results for the second quarter supported by excellent operational performance across the company. Overall this is a solid quarter, but at the same time the ongoing situation in the Middle East continues to impact the totality and affects the broader picture. As always, we begin with what matters most: safety. Safe operations and a safe working environment are the foundation for everything else that we report today, because without them none of our other results would matter.
Keeping our people safe remains my highest priority and the highest priority for the entire management team. And wherever I travel across Heathrow, one thing stands out: our people genuinely care about looking after each other. That commitment is one of our greatest strengths and I am pleased to report that both our HRIS and TRRS remain at historically low levels. The challenge now is really to avoid complacency because strong performance should never lead to lower vigilance.
Instead, we must continue learning, improving and moving steadily towards our ultimate ambition of zero injuries. Because every serious incident has consequences that go far beyond the individual involved. It affects colleagues, teams and the wider organization and it consumes enormous amount of time and energy that should otherwise be spent on improving our business, because when we operate safely we can focus our efforts on performance, productivity and creating value rather than managing crises.
Now with that, let's have a look at the highlights for the second quarter. The second quarter was characterized by continued strong operational performance across our business areas as well as good progress on our strategic agenda. The adjusted EBITDA for the quarter came in at 8.9 billion, while free cash flow was a solid 4 billion. Adjusted ROCE came in at 10.9%, above our target of 10% over the cycle. Our upstream business delivered solid performance and production remains stable across most of the value chain, despite the volatile operating environment that we have.
Our Norwegian casthouses delivered an all-time-high production supported by operational performance at a very high level. Also happy to see that recycling results also strengthened with an adjusted EBITDA reaching 0.9 billion during this quarter. From a market perspective, the realized all-in metal prices were 14% higher than in the first quarter, continuing to support earnings beyond the strong operational performance. Another important milestone this quarter is the agreement that will enable the restart of Slovalko.
Now this is an important step, both for Norsk Hydro, but also for European industry more broadly. It demonstrates that with the right framework conditions, industrial capacity can return to Europe. We also continue to strengthen our renewable power position, securing a further 5 TWh through the new long-term agreement with Eviny. Access to competitive renewable energy remains one of Norsk Hydro's greatest competitive advantages. Strengthening that position is essential to support continued strong operational as well as financial performance for the future.
So, all taken together, I am pleased with both operational execution and the progress we are making on our strategic priorities. As I said, we also continue to deliver solid returns with an adjusted ROCE of 10.9% over the last 12 months, above the target we have of 10% over this cycle. Back in 2022, we curtailed production at our joint venture plant Slovalko because the framework conditions simply did not support competitive aluminium production.
Unsustainable power prices and a lack of compensation for indirect carbon costs made continued operations impossible. Since then, we worked closely with the Slovak government to establish a framework that changes that. So earlier this month we reached an agreement combining long-term access to competitive power with more competitive framework conditions. Pending final approval by the EU, this agreement will enable the restart of the first 75,000 tonnes of production since the curtailment.
I believe this is important well beyond Slovakia. It demonstrates that Europe's competitiveness challenges are not inevitable. They are solvable when policymakers are willing to strike the right balance between ambitious climate policy and industrial competitiveness. European industry has enormous strengths and, with the right framework conditions in place, there is every reason to believe that Europe can continue to thrive and compete globally despite the many pessimistic predictions.
And the Slovalko case illustrates this well. Predictable policy, competitive energy and a level playing field make a real difference because without them, Europe risks becoming increasingly dependent on imported strategic materials. But with them we can rebuild industrial capacity, strengthen resilience and compete globally. At Norsk Hydro, Slovalko is another example of how we are strengthening our integrated aluminium platform while contributing to greater European resilience and security of supply.
It is an important milestone and one that we are incredibly happy to have reached. Now let's have a look at a few highlights from our commercial agenda. Throughout this quarter we have continued to strengthen Norsk Hydro's commercial position both by building demand and enthusiasm for aluminium and by securing new long-term offtake agreements. We have showcased the potential of aluminium through projects such as the Altdo installation at 3 Days of Design in Copenhagen and the new aluminium bridge in Bergen here in Norway.
These projects demonstrate what low-carbon and recycled aluminium can enable and help inspire future demand. And on the back of that, we continue to convert our position into larger commercial opportunities for low-carbon and recycled products. And I will return to this in just a moment. Operationally, we continue to execute well across the business. Our Norwegian smelters operated at near full capacity following the ramp-up of previously curtailed capacity, increasing production by 6% compared to the same period last year.
Total sales from the smelters reached all-time highs, both in Q1 as well as in Q2. Across our operations, our teams continue to deliver strong performance while maintaining relentless focus on safety, operational excellence and continuous improvements. And finally, we continue to strengthen one of Norsk Hydro's greatest competitive advantages, which is access to renewable power. This quarter we signed another long-term power purchase agreement, this time with Eviny, securing 0.5 TWh of renewable power annually between 2031 and 2040, or 5 terawatt hours over the life of the contract.
And this builds on the agreements we announced earlier this year with Statkraft and Alpiq. Altogether, we have now secured around 85% of the power need for our Norwegian smelter portfolio through the 30s. Long-term access to competitive renewable power is fundamental to Norsk Hydro's competitiveness, our low-carbon product offering and our future growth ambitions. While we are now in a much stronger position for the next decade, we will continue to pursue additional power-sourcing opportunities to further strengthen our long-term competitive position.
So, returning to the larger commercial opportunities that I mentioned before. The public discourse on decarbonisation may be overshadowed at times by heightened geopolitical tensions, but commercially the momentum continues. We still see strong demand for low-carbon and recycled products as well as a willingness among our customers to pay the associated premiums. In the automotive sector, we continue to develop our long-standing partnerships with Mercedes-Benz.
Mercedes-Benz is one of our most demanding customers, not least when it comes to sustainability. Their focus on decarbonizing their value chain continues and we will soon be announcing some very exciting news about the next steps in our collaboration. We've also signed a new five-year agreement with power cable producer Nexans to supply approximately 85,000 tons of low-carbon aluminium wire rod between 2026 and 2030. The aluminium wire rod will be produced at Calm and used in power cables for Europe's electricity grid, including medium-voltage grids, overhead transmission lines as well as subsea infrastructure.
Now, as Europe expands and modernizes its electricity networks, reliable access to critical materials is becoming increasingly important. This agreement then combines predictable long-term supply with low-carbon aluminum, supporting both Europe's decarbonisation and its energy security. Both partnerships illustrate how we are working with leading customers to translate our low-carbon position into concrete commercial opportunities and long-term customer relationships.
Now then, let's have a quick look at the alumina market. The alumina price started the quarter at $313 per tonne and remained stable at this low level throughout the quarter. As we discussed in Q1, the smelter curtailments in the Middle East have increased the global oversupply in the alumina market. Adding to this, the Chinese market was also supplied in the second quarter, although we saw some refinery disruptions both in China and in Indonesia, reducing the oversupply somewhat.
The PAX alumina price closely reflected the Chinese import parity price, with Chinese refineries then enjoying relatively low raw material costs. The result was an average alumina price in second quarter of $308 per tonne compared to $307 per tonne in the first quarter of the year. Towards the end of the quarter alumina prices increased to $330 per tonne and this is by most assumed to be driven by a more optimistic view of the Middle East restarts and smelter ramp-ups.
In Indonesia, the estimated global balance is now 1.6 million tons long in 2026 compared to the 3 million tonnes we showed in Q1. We move on to the aluminium market. The factors impacting the alumina market have also continued to impact the aluminium market this quarter. As we discussed in Q1, the Middle East curtailments have made the market significantly undersupplied and this pushed prices up. The three-month aluminum price started the quarter at just above $3,500 per tonne and peaked at $3,750 in early June.
As we move towards the end of the quarter, expectations for the global supply balance shifted somewhat. External analysis now indicates a global deficit in 2026 of just under 1 million tonnes compared to the more than 2 million tonnes that was expected in Q1. The revised balance reflects higher supply expectations while demand continues to grow year on year. Most of the additional supply is expected to come from Indonesia and from China. We still believe that the 45 million tonne annual production cap in China will remain.
However, production is currently running at a somewhat higher rate to address parts of the supply gap created by the Middle East curtailments. The increased supply outlook led to a sharp downward correction in prices towards the end of the quarter, with aluminium price closing at $3,085 at the end of the quarter. However, thanks to the strong price development through mid-June, the quarterly average price still increased from $3,188 in Q1 to $3,519 in the second quarter.
Product premiums were more stable, though the European standard ingot duty-paid premiums started the quarter at $587 per tonne and ended at $557. The quarterly average was $582 compared to $391 in Q1. The US Midwest premium declined somewhat from $2,523 at the start of the quarter to $2,396 at the end. The average premium in the second quarter was $2,518 compared to $2,292 in the first quarter. Then finally, let's have a look at the downstream market where demand remains flattish at relatively low levels.
In Europe the market was marginally positive in the second quarter. I would say that one bright spot was automotive where demand increased on growth in EV production. Other segments remained flat. North America also saw flat growth in second quarter, recovering somewhat from the decline that we saw in the first quarter. Here the strongest growth came from the electrical segment supported by the data center investments. Now looking ahead, both markets are estimated to see slight growth for the full year in Q3.
In North America we expect to see the fastest growth compensating for the somewhat weaker start to the year compared to Europe. And with that let me give the word to Trond Olaf for the financial update.
Trond Olaf Christophersen, EVP & CFO
Thank you, Eivind, and good morning and welcome from my side as well. We will start with the financial highlights for the quarter, and all numbers will be presented in Norwegian kroner comparing year over year. Revenues increased by around 6% to 56.5 billion for Q2. This was driven by higher all-in metal prices. For Q2 we delivered an adjusted EBITDA of 8.9 billion and reported EBITDA of 11.6 billion. Adjusting items for the quarter were around 2.7 billion, mainly related to unrealized derivative gains on LME-related contracts of 3.1 billion.
The adjusted EBIT for Q2 was 6.3 billion with reported EBIT of 8.6 billion. In addition to the adjusting items to EBITDA, there were around 300 million in adjusting items impacting EBIT related to impairments. The difference between the adjusted and the reported EBIT was therefore 2.4 billion. Net financial expense for Q2 was 600 million, mainly driven by interest and financial expenses of 600 million. Interest and finance income of 300 million and unrealized foreign exchange losses of 300 million netted each other out.
The income tax expense was 2 billion in Q2, impacted by strong earnings before tax, so the reported tax rate for Q2 was 25% overall. This resulted in an adjusted net income of 4.6 billion with a reported net income of 6 billion. The total adjusting items to net income were 1.4 billion, which is the sum of the EBIT adjusting items plus the net foreign exchange loss of 300 million and an income tax effect of 700 million. Adjusted net income was up from 3.6 billion in the same quarter last year and up from 4.1 billion in Q1.
Consequently, adjusted earnings per share were 2.21 NOK per share for Q2 2026, up from 1.68 NOK per share in Q2 2025. Free cash flow ended at 4 billion for the quarter, supported by the strong adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted net debt was 22.8 billion, as the strong cash flow was offset by the annual dividend payment in May. Finally, I would also like to add on the financial highlights for Q2 that the full-year capex guiding for 2026 of around 13.5 billion remains.
Then moving to more details on the results, and when looking at the results, Q2 compared to Q1, adjusted EBITDA increased from 8.7 billion to 8.9 billion, and the key drivers were higher all-in aluminium prices and improved downstream results. This was partly offset by lower energy production, higher fixed costs, stronger NOK versus the US dollar, and negative results in commercial activities. In Metal Markets, realized all-in aluminium prices and premiums contributed positively with around 2.6 billion, while alumina price development was neutral.
Upstream volume development had a net negative impact of 300 million from lower sales volumes in Aluminium Metal, mainly due to Qatalum curtailments. This was partly offset by higher sales in Bauxite & Alumina. Raw material costs decreased by 70 million, mainly due to lower energy costs in Bauxite & Alumina and Extrusions. This was partly offset by higher energy and carbon prices in Aluminium Metal. Metal Extrusions had a positive development from increased sales volumes of about 200 million.
Recycling results from Metal Markets and Extrusions contributed positively with 300 million, partly offset by lower margins in Extrusions by 250 million. Furthermore, we saw a net negative impact of 300 million, mainly driven by lower production and less net spot sales. In the Energy business area, fixed costs increased in Q2 with an impact of 300 million. This was mainly explained by seasonally high fixed costs of 250 million in Bauxite & Alumina.
We also saw negative 400 million in currency effects, mainly driven by the stronger NOK compared to the US dollar. In the Other category, there was a negative effect quarter over quarter of 1.3 billion, and the largest effect was negative result in the commercial activities in Metal Markets. Eliminations of internal profits also turned from positive in Q1 to neutral in Q2, giving a negative delta. Then moving to the debt side and moving on the debt development.
Through the quarter, net debt increased by 3.4 billion from 12.9 to 16.3 billion. From Q1 to Q2 we delivered a very strong free cash flow of 4 billion in Q2, driven by an adjusted EBITDA of 8.9 billion. Net operating capital remained stable through the quarter, as CO2 compensation received was offset by higher sales revenues and pre-summer inventory build. Other operating cash flow of negative 2.4 billion mainly comprised income tax and interest payments on debt.
We saw net investments of 2.6 billion in Q2, reflecting normal investment activity level according to plan. Ordinary dividend of 3 NOK per share was distributed to our shareholders in May, in total 5.9 billion. Other changes to net debt of 1.5 billion mainly comprise FX effects and new lease obligations during the quarter. In total, this gives a net debt position at Q2 of 16.3 billion. Moving on to adjustments to net debt, we saw a decline in hedging collateral and other by 2.6 billion.
This was due to lower prices and volumetric position at the quarter end. Our net positive pension positions decreased by 300 million due to lower interest rates in Norway. Other liabilities remained stable during Q2. All elements considered, we ended up at an adjusted net debt position at the end of Q2 of 22.8 billion. Moving then to the business areas and starting with Bauxite & Alumina. In Bauxite & Alumina, adjusted EBITDA came in at 550 million in Q2, down from 1.5 billion in the same quarter last year.
The main negative drivers were lower alumina prices and unfavorable currency effects. These effects were partly offset by lower LNG prices and lower raw material costs. Compared to Q1, EBITDA declined from 750 million to 550 million. The result was down due to unfavorable currency effects and lower alumina prices, partly offset by lower LNG price. For Q3 we expect higher alumina production and sales. We estimate that the fully loaded raw material cost, fixed costs, and energy costs to be flat.
Moving then to Aluminium Metal. In Aluminium Metal, adjusted EBITDA increased year over year from 2.4 billion in Q2 last year to 6.4 billion this quarter. The result was driven by higher all-in metal prices and lower alumina costs. This was partly offset by negative currency effects reflecting the weaker US dollar against Norwegian kroner. Compared to Q1, adjusted EBITDA increased by 1.4 billion and the key drivers were higher all-in metal prices including realized premiums.
This was partly offset by somewhat lower sales volumes linked to the disruptions in the Middle East and unfavorable currency development. This brings me then to the outlook for the next quarter, for Q3. Aluminium Metal has booked 62% of the primary production at 3,361 US dollars per metric tonne, and this includes the effect of our strategic hedging program. Aluminium Metal has also booked 54% of the premiums affecting Q3 at 783 US dollars per tonne, and we expect realized premiums to end up in the range of 660 to 710 US dollars per tonne.
On the cost side, carbon costs are expected to increase 50 to 150 million. Energy costs are also expected to increase by 50 to 150 million, driven by coal and LME links in some of the power contracts. And finally, fixed costs are expected to decrease by 100 to 200 million after a seasonally higher level in Q2. Then to the next segment, Metal Markets. For Metal Markets, the adjusted EBITDA decreased from 280 million in Q2 2025 to 32 million in Q2 2026.
The sourcing and trading activities had a negative result of 250 million this quarter, and the recycling business delivered 290 million in positive results. Excluding currency and inventory valuation effects, the result for Q2 was negative 170 million, down from positive 310 million in the same quarter last year. Excluding the currency and inventory valuation effects, Metal Markets reported a negative result of 170 million in Q2 2026 compared to 310 million in the same quarter last year.
Compared to Q1, adjusted EBITDA for Metal Markets came down from 540 million in Q1 to 32 million in Q2. The main driver was the lower results from the sourcing and trading, offset by improved recycling results. Recycling continues to improve in both the U.S. and in Europe, delivering adjusted EBITDA of 290 million in the quarter. As we also highlighted last quarter, margins remained particularly strong in the U.S., where product premiums have increased faster than scrap metal input cost.
Then to the outlook for Q3, and for Q3 we expect strong results in recycling to continue. We expect normalizing results from sourcing and trading activities, and as always, we emphasize the inherent volatility of trading and currency fluctuations in the Metal Markets segment. Then to Extrusions. In Extrusions, the adjusted EBITDA increased year over year from 1.2 billion to 1.5 billion in Q2 this year, driven by the strong recycling margins, in particular in the U.S. Compared to Q1, adjusted EBITDA improved from 1.3 billion to 1.5 billion in Q2. Again, the main driver was improved recycling margins but also seasonally higher volumes. Despite the seasonal increase, volume development was a bit weaker than we expected due to the ongoing restructuring efforts, especially in Extrusions Europe. The restructuring and associated volume transfers had a negative impact on the cost level as well in the quarter. Finally, negative currency translation effects also impacted the results.
For Q3, for Extrusions, we should underline that we always compare the coming quarter to the same quarter last year due to the strong seasonality. Looking at Q3, we expect high sales volumes. The current strong recycling margins in the U.S. and Europe are expected to continue also into Q3, and overall margins for the business area are stable. In Q3 2025 we had an extraordinary metal effect from increased Midwest premium of 420 million. The Q3 metal effect will depend on the Midwest premium development during the quarter.
Should the current FX rate continue through Q3, there will also be a negative currency translation effect in the extrusion results. And then moving to the final business area, Energy. In Energy, adjusted EBITDA came in at 500 million in Q2, down from 1.1 billion in the same quarter last year. The main driver was the dry hydrology leading to lower production and lower spot sales, and also price area loss compared to the price area gain we had last year.
Compared to Q1 this year, the adjusted EBITDA fell from 790 million in Q1 to 500 million in Q2. The main driver was seasonally lower production. The price area loss was somewhat lower than in the previous quarter, at 170 million negative in Q2 compared to 190 million negative in Q1. Looking then into Q3, as always, we should be aware of the weather-driven inherent price and volume uncertainty in Energy. Hydrology remains the key driver of Nordic power prices, and we continue to see a weak hydrological balance in the southern part of Norway compared to historical levels.
Finally, at the current outlook, we expect that the loss from price area differences should improve in Q3 compared to Q2. And this ends the business area presentation. And with that I end the financial update and give the word back to Eivind.
Eivind Kallevik, CEO
Thank you, Trond Olaf. Then, to wrap up today's session, I'll briefly summarize our priorities. Our number one priority remains the safety, health, and well-being of our employees. Strong results are really only meaningful when everyone returns home safely, and we remain fully committed to our ambition of zero injuries. Now, against the backdrop of continued geopolitical turbulence and volatile markets, maintaining operational excellence and delivering reliably for our customers remain key priorities.
This quarter demonstrated the strength of our integrated value chain with record-high cast house production in Norway and stable production across most of our operations. We also continue to strengthen the competitiveness of our portfolio across both primary aluminum and the recycling business. The framework agreement to restart Slovalco is an important milestone for European primary aluminium production, while our recycling business delivered another strong quarter.
Together with continued progress on renewable power sourcing, these are important steps in strengthening Norsk Hydro's long-term competitive position. At the same time, we do remain focused on executing our decarbonization and technology roadmap. Our new agreement with Nexans and continued collaboration with Mercedes-Benz demonstrate how we are translating our low-carbon position into long-term commercial opportunities with leading customers. Overall, I am pleased with how we balanced strong operational and financial performance with disciplined execution in a quarter characterized by significant market volatility.
We remain firmly on track to deliver on our 2030 strategy as well. So with that, thank you so much for your attention, and then over to you, Erik.
OPERATOR
Thank you, Eivind, and thank you, Trond Olaf. We will then commence the Q&A session, and again as a reminder, if you do have questions, please type them into the box on your screen and then I will read your questions to Eivind and Trond Olaf. It looks like we have a few questions already so we can get started. First one is from Liam on Qatalum. Can you discuss your expectations for volumes and the ramp-up to full capacity over the next 6 to 12 months?
Eivind Kallevik, CEO
Thanks, Liam. I think our primary focus at the moment is to keep safe and stable operations given the volatile situation that we have in the Gulf at the moment. So our base case now is that we will continue to run around 60%, and then when the situation stabilizes and—or normalizes, we will come back and update you in terms of ramp-up schedule.
OPERATOR
Then we have a second one from Magnus in SEB on what aluminium price, roughly, do you need for this restart to exceed the return requirements?
Trond Olaf Christophersen, EVP & CFO
So we don't really guide on price specifically. What we can say is that we're relatively well placed on the cost curve—low in the third quartile or just north of the second quartile, if you like. So it's going to be a reasonably well-placed metric going forward.
OPERATOR
One more from Liam on recycling. Are spot spreads continuing to widen in Q3, or is the drop in premiums putting some downwards pressure? And how do you expect Recycling annualized EBITDA to trend in Q3 and Q4?
Trond Olaf Christophersen, EVP & CFO
Hi, Liam. Yeah, so we don't really give an outlook for the full year and for the coming quarters, but as I said during the presentation, we expect the strong recycling results to continue also in Q3 as we are seeing in Q2.
OPERATOR
And then we have a few questions from Ahmed. I think I'll do one by one. So. So this is on Qatalum. First question, alumina sourcing strategy. Can you provide an update on that?
Eivind Kallevik, CEO
So Qatalum has been continuing to source alumina in the period that we have behind us, and they will continue to source in the same way. As you will understand, it is quite a challenging situation at the moment to get raw materials in. They have established what seems to be a solid sourcing strategy. Parts of it come in big bags onshore, so they're doing a good job locally in Qatar.
OPERATOR
And the second part of the question is the current operating rate and ability to sell aluminium.
Eivind Kallevik, CEO
Yes. So I've been commenting on the current operating rate. We are operating around 60%. As we said, when it comes to sales, we have quite limited sales out of the Middle East in this quarter. And again, I mean the volatility makes that it's very difficult to predict how this will evolve.
OPERATOR
Then the third part of the question was on the expected timeline for ramp-up that you have answered. So we can go to the fourth, which is the implications of the cancellation of the distribution agreement.
Trond Olaf Christophersen, EVP & CFO
So as we have said, it's quite limited impact financially from that situation in the quarter. The biggest effect around Qatalum and the whole Middle East situation is on the curtailment and, of course, in the price environment when it comes to further sales—that's the discussion we're having. So we will come back on that when we are concluded on how this will go going forward.
OPERATOR
And then the final part of the question was your 2027 outlook for aluminium and alumina prices.
Eivind Kallevik, CEO
I guess the boring answer to that is that we don't really guide on prices as such. We are simple supply-demand people for aluminium. As we said, we expect under-supply in 2026, which should lead to reasonably good prices for the rest of the year on the metal side, and then on the alumina side somewhat over-supply. And then we'll come back to 2027 later on in the year.
OPERATOR
Then from Alain: will there be any restart costs associated with the restart, and what are the conditions that are needed for a full restart of the facility?
Trond Olaf Christophersen, EVP & CFO
So we expect capital around 400 million for the restart, in addition to some operating capital that will come in. So not too significant. But I think it's also important in the same sentence to say that we still stay within the totality of the capital guidance for the year. So we will see how to cover that 400 million within the CapEx guidance. Whether or not we will, or at what time we will, restart the remaining part of the plant—or the 100,000 tons in addition—we will come back to.
That's also a part of the plant that needs a little bit more refurbishment than the first 75,000 tons that we do. So let's come back to that in due time.
OPERATOR
And then as a follow-up on that one from Hans Eric, do you believe you will be able to restart the last 100,000 tons later on?
Eivind Kallevik, CEO
We are able to, but first and foremost we would like to do the restart in a safe and sound manner of the first 75,000 tons. And then if we see the opportunity for the remaining 100,000 tons, we will come back to that at a later stage.
OPERATOR
Then we have one more from Ahmed on Qatalum. I think you have answered already. Are you able to sell the 60% production at Qatalum?
Eivind Kallevik, CEO
So as I said, we have quite limited sales out of Qatalum this quarter. And I mean you all follow the situation in the Middle East and the limitations of shipments through the straits. So that definitely impacts the ability to get metal out.
OPERATOR
And then from Marcus on Bauxite & Alumina (B&A): are you able to quantify the positive effect from lower LNG prices? Also, should we expect continued positive effects from improved bauxite quality into Q3?
Trond Olaf Christophersen, EVP & CFO
So on the LNG price effects, we give a sensitivity on that in the package. And I don't have the sensitivity on the top of my head, but you will find the sensitivity there and it's linked to the development of the prices. So based on the realized price this quarter and your expectation for the coming quarter, you can find the effect on the LNG costs for bauxite. When it comes to the bauxite quality situation in B&A, that is a very exciting improvement project that B&A is running, and they're using a lot of new technologies to really get the best quality out of the area we are mining.
And there are really quite a lot of improvements on that. So for the full year we expect to continue to realize improvements when it comes to bauxite quality, and we see that both in terms of the cost for bauxite but also in terms of lower costs in the refinery because of better bauxite quality coming into the refinery. So this is a very exciting improvement project that Bauxite & Alumina is running.
OPERATOR
Two questions from Matt. Number one, aluminum markets have been more resilient than expected. How would you describe the physical market in Europe? Are you seeing or expecting to see tightness in any particular downstream products?
Trond Olaf Christophersen, EVP & CFO
So typically when we think about the physical market, I think we need to look at the two different price components. One is the LME, which is a globally set price and also partly financially driven, and we've seen a larger decline in LME prices during the quarter. I think when we think about the physical market, it is to look at the regional premiums. And here we see a much less change in price during the quarter, indicating that the physical market remains strong, and remains strong both when you look at foundry alloys, or if you look at extrusion ingots, or if you look at sheet ingot—premiums are still very strong in this area.
OPERATOR
And the second part of this question: has the Middle East conflict led to market share gains for your downstream business, particularly in Europe? Are customers looking to diversify supply away from the region?
Eivind Kallevik, CEO
So first to your last part of the question, I mean it's a general trend, I would say both in the US market and European market, that customers are looking for more local suppliers due to the overall uncertainty of overseas shipments. So that is supporting our operations. When it comes specifically to Europe, yes, we have been able to produce more and sell more to the market, both from the Norwegian smelter system, but also from our recyclers in Europe in this quarter, and as I commented on in the beginning of the presentation, we have all-time high cast house production from the Norwegian smelter system, and that is partly driven by the market opportunities in the current situation.
OPERATOR
Then we have a question from Yos on Hydro Energy: adjusted EBITDA in the first half of 2024 decreased by 50%, and, quote from the report, this was mainly due to lower production and loss on price area differences compared to, again, the same period last year, somewhat offset by improved commercial results. Can you elaborate on this?
Trond Olaf Christophersen, EVP & CFO
The main driver behind the Energy results is really the hydrological situation in Norway, and we have seen a very large shift from a hydrological surplus last year to a very significant hydrological deficit, and we are close to the lowest level we have seen when it comes to water reservoirs and snow reservoirs in Norway in the current situation, as we also saw during Q1. And the consequence for us is that we have then less water to produce, so it affects total production.
But since Energy is selling most of their production to Aluminium Metal, they also have less energy to sell in the spot market, so that is also impacting the financials. The other effect that is also affected by hydrology is the area price differences in Norway. We do not have a perfect fit between where we have deliveries of PPAs in the Nordics and also our production compared to the consumption at the smelters. So when you have differences between the price areas, we will also either realize a gain on the price differences or a loss.
Last year—and the last years, I would say—we have realized significant gains, while this year we have realized losses. So those are the main drivers behind the change in the Energy results. Again, it's mostly weather-driven volatility and not the underlying performance.
OPERATOR
And then one more from Liam on cost inflation. Costs appear very contained with limited inflation in Q3 compared to Q2. Are there any major lags we should consider that could lead to higher costs later in the year? Or do you see raw material and energy costs as relatively stable?
Trond Olaf Christophersen, EVP & CFO
I mean we only again give guidance on the coming quarter, and the outlook for the next quarter is that we see quite a flattish development when it comes to cost, and then we always have some seasonality when it comes to fixed costs, so that trend continues also this year. But at least for the time being we do not see any significant cost inflation overall for the company. But there are pluses and minuses in the total portfolio.
OPERATOR
We have a final question from Ahmed on: How far are you from reaching the maximum aluminum storage capacity since you are not able to sell the production?
Trond Olaf Christophersen, EVP & CFO
Oh, we're still okay from a storage capacity perspective. Of course it's getting fuller and fuller day by day, but hopefully we will also start to see some sales going forward from Coptalum also in the future. But we're still okay from a storage perspective.
OPERATOR
And then we got a follow-up question from Jonas on: and again you expect losses on price area differences to decrease in the next quarter. Why?
Trond Olaf Christophersen, EVP & CFO
Well, again this is an outlook based on the current realized prices. So of course we do not know. But based on what we see of the different prices, spot prices in the different price areas in the Nordics, that is our expectation that the losses will improve, or much lower losses in the coming quarter compared to Q2.
OPERATOR
And then we have one from TAM A. Can you please quantify alumina oversupply? I guess that could be referring to the market oversupply we talked about.
Trond Olaf Christophersen, EVP & CFO
Yes, we got it on 1.6, something like that. In that range. I have a little more slide. Can't remember the number, but it's in that range.
OPERATOR
Good. And that seems to have been the last question, at least on my screen. So then I think we will wrap it up here. Thank you all so much for all the questions. If you have further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to us in investor relations. So thank you and have a good.
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