Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) just delivered one of the most extreme growth quarters in semiconductor history. The next act looks nothing like it.
- MU stock is up today. See the real-time price action here.
The Comp Problem
In its fiscal third quarter ended May 28, DRAM revenue jumped 343% year-over-year to a record $31.3 billion, roughly 76% of the $41.5 billion total, with pricing doing most of the work.
Average selling prices climbed in the low-60% range sequentially while bit shipments rose only low single digits. Research firm I/O Fund says traders should stop extrapolating.
“In all likelihood, the 343% YoY growth rate recently reported is in the rearview mirror,” I/O Fund lead analyst Beth Kindig wrote.
Consensus now models about 88% revenue growth in fiscal 2027, then 13% in fiscal 2028 and 10% in fiscal 2029 before flattening and turning sharply negative.
Deceleration is not the same as a bust. Kindig’s argument is that supply stays tight and margins stay historically fat — a bottom-line story replacing a top-line one.
Where the Ceiling Bites
The mechanism sits inside Micron’s 16 strategic customer agreements. Most run five years, from calendar 2026 through the end of 2030, structured as take-or-pay commitments with negotiated quarterly pricing inside a floor-to-ceiling band.
On the largest deals, the ceiling for existing products is pegged near calendar second-quarter 2026 market prices. Once all planned agreements are signed, contracts with fixed prices or ceilings at or close to those levels should cover roughly 40% of revenue, CFO Mark Murphy told analysts in June.
So if DRAM spot pricing keeps ripping, a meaningful slice of the upside never reaches the income statement. Fourteen of the 16 agreements carry about $100 billion in cumulative revenue at minimum contract prices over the remaining term — a floor management described as delivering gross margins above any past cycle peak.
Not everything is capped. Newer HBM generations, DDR6 and LPDDR6 sit outside the bands and get premiums negotiated separately, which preserves the AI-driven upside on leading-edge parts while locking in returns on products drifting toward commodity status.
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What to Watch Sept. 30
Micron reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on Sept. 30. Analysts expect quarterly revenue of $50.62 billion and adjusted earnings of $31.30 per share, according to estimates from Benzinga Pro.
The number that matters most is whether the HBM4 mix and the uncapped next-generation ramp can continue to hold margins near record levels.
MU Stock Price Activity: Micron stock was up 2.38% at $1040.00 at the time of publication Monday, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Photo: Samuel Boivin / Shutterstock
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