Mark Spitznagel, founder of Universa Investments, built his reputation protecting investors from market crashes. Now the Universa Investments founder says the S&P 500 will “easily” top 8,000 in one final euphoric rally before plunging 80%.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) climbed 1.3% Monday, leaving the index less than 4% from his target.
What Happened
“Let me just say, I’m pretty f—ing bullish,” Spitznagel told Puck in an interview published Sunday.
Spitznagel said he has been bullish for four years and still sees a “helluva rally” ahead as investor psychology swings toward euphoria.
Then comes the reversal. “It’s going to collapse 80 percent,” he said, repeating an 80% crash warning he made last year.
Spitznagel blames the bubble on years of near-zero interest rates and believes higher borrowing costs will eventually break it. He expects the resulting downturn to force the Fed to restart quantitative easing, buying bonds to lower longer-term rates and support the economy.
He expects the Fed’s balance sheet to “explode in the year ahead” and believes that intervention would eventually revive inflation.
The Bullish Half Is Working
Spitznagel put the 8,000 target on record in September 2025, when the S&P 500 traded near 6,653. It has since gained roughly 16%, leaving his target less than 4% away.
Spitznagel told Puck that three sharp selloffs were bear traps rather than the beginning of the final crash. He cited the August 2024 rush to unwind trades financed with cheap Japanese yen, President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the Iran war.
A bear trap draws investors into betting on further losses before stocks rebound. Puck said Spitznagel was largely right as markets recovered after each episode, strengthening the bullish half of his forecast while leaving the predicted 80% collapse untested.
Prediction traders also favor a move to 8,000. Kalshi prices a 65.4% chance that the S&P 500 touches that level before 2027. The contract does not predict whether a collapse follows.
Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
Why Spitznagel Gets Attention
Universa’s strategy works like disaster insurance for an investment portfolio. It spends a small portion of a client’s money on options designed to rise sharply when markets plunge.
Those options often expire worthless during calm periods, creating a recurring cost similar to an insurance premium. During a severe crash, however, their gains can offset losses elsewhere and give investors cash to buy stocks at depressed prices.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who popularized the term “black swan” for a rare and highly disruptive event, serves as Universa’s scientific adviser.
Puck reported that Universa returned more than 115% to investors during the 2008 financial crisis. The firm reported a 3,612% return on capital invested in its hedge during the March 2020 COVID crash, not on clients’ entire portfolios.
Not every Spitznagel forecast has landed. He said in September 2024 that a U.S. recession was “imminent” and could begin before year-end. Nearly two years later, the NBER still lists the brief 2020 COVID downturn as the country’s most recent recession.
Photo by AciiDesign via Shutterstock
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