Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) surged 11% over the past week, hitting a seven-month high, as analyst Kevin Capital pointed to a series of higher-timeframe technical signals suggesting the bear-market bottom is likely in.
He now assigns a 90%-95% probability that Bitcoin’s roughly $60,000 low marked the cycle bottom, up from his previous 70% estimate.
However, he expects a pullback after the latest breakout.
Why BTC Bull Market Is Here?
In a podcast on Sep.21, Kevin pointed to Bitcoin breaking above the daily moving averages that capped price throughout the bear market, followed by consolidation and another move higher.
He also highlighted a golden cross that occurred more than 300 days into the bear market and a bullish two-week MACD crossover.
Kevin said similar signals in previous cycles appeared after Bitcoin’s lows were already established.
Bitcoin has also closed above its 50-week moving average, broken its previous lower-high structure and moved through the $85,000 (0.5) Fibonacci level.
"The bottom is obviously in," Kevin said, adding that it would take a major shock to invalidate the developing trend.
Is $100,000 Bitcoin Next?
Kevin sees “plenty of juice in the tank” if Bitcoin holds its latest higher-timeframe breakout.
His next major target zone sits between $93,000 and $100,000, where a high-volume area and major technical resistance converge.
However, he does not expect Bitcoin to move straight up. A run toward $93,000-$100,000 could set up a correction as Bitcoin becomes increasingly extended from its daily moving averages.
Kevin said the key from here is for Bitcoin to continue forming higher lows, which would preserve the broader bullish structure even during a pullback.
The analyst compared the setup to Bitcoin’s 2022-2023 bear-market exit, when it reclaimed key moving averages before rallying from $25,000 to $73,000.
Image: Shutterstock
Photo: Shutterstock
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