U.S. stock futures are trending lower early Thursday as Wall Street prepares for high-stakes trade and AI discussions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, alongside key retail earnings and housing market indicators.
The Polymarket (CRYPTO: POL) crowd is leaning bearish for the Sept. 24 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 24?” contract currently reflects a 39% chance of a higher open.
Why That Number Matters
Traders are confronting lower index futures, diplomatic maneuvering with Beijing, and a heavy corporate earnings schedule:
- Lower Index Futures: Equity futures are pointing to a negative open across major benchmarks. Dow Jones futures dropped 0.13%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.24%. Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.29%, and Russell 2000 futures declined 0.19%.
- Trump-Xi Summit & Energy Prices: President Trump welcomed Chinese President Xi Jinping at Joint Base Andrews with a military display featuring a B-1 bomber flyover ahead of Thursday’s state dinner, which is expected to include tech leaders Tim Cook, Jensen Huang, and Sam Altman. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a two-month extension of the U.S.-China trade truce to Jan. 10. Meanwhile, oil prices retreated slightly, with Brent crude futures dipping 0.87% to $102.18 per barrel and WTI crude falling 0.76% to $91.46 per barrel.
- Earnings & Economic Data: Thursday’s earnings slate features reports from Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:COST), Darden Restaurants Inc. (NYSE:DRI), TD Synnex Corp. (NYSE:SNX), and BlackBerry Ltd. (NYSE:BB). On the economic calendar, investors are monitoring weekly initial jobless claims, August building permits and new home sales, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey and remarks from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin.
The Bear Case and Market Outlook
A key source of market friction remains the sustained upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields. According to economist Mohamed El-Erian, market participants should not be surprised by the recent yield surge, citing clear fundamental drivers including heavy borrowing plans from both the government and large tech corporates, signals of strong economic activity from the Fed, and ongoing uncertainty around the Middle East conflict.
El-Erian noted that many investors are caught in a “psychological anchoring” mindset formed by more than a decade of artificially repressed yields following the 2008 financial crisis. As markets adjust to this higher-rate reality, debt-heavy sectors and broader equity valuations continue to face headwinds.
How the Previous Bet Played Out
The Sept. 23 Polymarket contract resolved “Down” after the market opened lower. The contract recorded $28,211 in total trading volume.
On Wednesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed lower. SPY fell 0.72% to $767.81, while QQQ fell 0.84% to $741.21. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), ended 0.71% lower at $514.30.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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